Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 1999

ANOTHER DAY WHERE SOMEWHAT ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION NECESSARY DUE TO
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH SOME SEVERE.  18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A
VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION WITH SURFACE LI'S OF MINUS 10 OR MORE PLUS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM MINNESOTA. SHORT FUSE ANALYSIS
SUPPORTS CONTINUED CONVECTION REMAINDER THIS PM WITH MORE SEVERE
POSSIBLE IN FORM OF HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INTO EARLY
EVENING. LARGER SCALE PATTERN SHOWS CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED BY
THE INTERACTION OF A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING OLD MCC BOUNDARY WITH WEAK
VORT MAX NOW NE OF KANSAS CITY. THIS ENERGY IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE
SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH ARE ALL
AIDING FOR WARM...HUMID AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING DISSIPATION OF THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION PLUS FUTURE CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALL MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS MOVE WEAK VORT MAX NORTHEAST AND
SHEAR SYSTEM AND MOVE A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NE
AND DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  DIFFER WITH STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
AND BAROCLINICITY BUT ALL SHOW PRECIP ALONG FRONT WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY AMOUNTS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS CONCEPTUALLY THIS PATTERN
FITS A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT MCC/MCS EVENT(S).  UPPER AIR AND
INFLOW SUPPORTS DUE EAST PROPAGATION INTO CWFA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TONIGHT WILL USE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WORDING TO HANDLE CURRENT
CONVECTION AND VALID IOWA WATCH.  WILL USE FWC/FAN GUIDANCE ADDING
ABOUT 10 PERCENT TO POPS WHICH HAS WORKED WELL IF NOT UNDERDONE FOR
TODAYS CONVECTION. WITH WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES UNTIL THURSDAY
WILL USE LATE PM AND EVENING VERBIAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AID OF
DIURNAL KICKER. TOMORROW CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH
PULSE TYPE STORMS THE GENERAL RULE.  WILL PUT LIKELY POPS NW HALF
FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AND CHANCE POPS SE ONE
HALF OF FORECAST AREA. PLAN TO PUT OUT ESF FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
PLUS RAINS TODAY AS SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE RIGHT AT BANKFULL OR
SOME MINOR FLOODING ONGOING. IF STORMS TODAY LAST LONGER WITH HEAVY
RAINS OVER LARGER AREAS...MAY NEED TO ISSUE LAST MINUTE FLASH FLOOD
OR FLOOD WATCH AS 3 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN 1- 2 INCH RANGE MOST
AREAS.

EXTENDED PERIODS DAY 3 - 5 SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY SO LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH MORE
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  CHANCE OF
LEFTOVER PRECIP ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST WITH MAINLY DRY SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND
NEAR NORMAL REST OF PERIOD.

COORDINATION...DSM...STL...ARX.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDVN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

CID BB 066/091 068/086 066  16323
MLI BB 068/092 070/087 069  16323
DBQ BB 065/088 066/085 065  16323
BRL BB 072/093 072/091 072  16323

.DVN...

IA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 00Z OR 7 PM...EAST CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST IOWA AND ALL SOUTHEAST IOWA EXCEPT HENRY...VAN BUREN...
LEE AND DES MOINES COUNTIES.
IL...NONE.

NICHOLS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 1999

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0251 PM    INDEPENDENCE              IA    .75 INCH HAIL
06/08/99   BUCHANAN                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                           ENFORCEMENT

0252 PM    FAIRFIELD                 IA    .75 INCH HAIL
06/08/99   JEFFERSvON