Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 1999

NOT MUCH TIME TO GET INTO DETAIL WITH ONGOING SVR WX.

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TNGT AND
PCPN CHCS TOMORROW.

UPR LOW OVR SD WITH S/WV EJECTG NEWD ACRS MDWST. CAP BASICALLY GONE
AS STG LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH S/WV TRIGGERING STG/SVR
TSTMS. TSTMS QUICKLY GOING SVR WITH CAPES GENERALLY AOA 4000 J/KG.
CNVCTN EXTDG SWWD ACRS MO/KS/OK/N TX IN WELL DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS AND AHEAD OF WEAK CDFNT. RADAR SHOWG PLENTY OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING LAYED DOWN BY TSTMS AND THESE WL BE KEY FOR
TOMORROW/S FCST. MDLS TAKE BULK OF LIFT/CONVERGENCE JUST E OF RVR BY
12Z MONDAY. CONCERNS ABOUT TRAINING OF ECHOES AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. LTST FFG VALUES AVERAGING 1.0-1.5 IN/HR AND
2.0-2.5 IN/3 HR. SOME AREAS WL MEET OR EXCEED AND CAN BE COVERED WITH
URBAN/SMALL STREAM AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOOD...BUT NOT EXPCTG COVERAGE
TO BE WIDESPREAD ENUF TO WARRANT WATCH. TSTMS ALSO MOVG AT A GUD
CLIP SO EVEN THOUGH RAINS ARE REAL HVY THEY ARE GENERALLY NOT
LASTING TOO LONG. CNVCTN FIRING OVR WRN/CNTRL IA LIFTING RAPIDLY
NEWD AND SHUD MAINLY STAY TO OUR N AND W.

MDLS TRY AND DRY THINGS OUT TOMORROW...BUT AS ELUDED TO BY NCEP...
MDLS ARE NOT HANDLG CNTRL/SRN PLNS CNVCTN VERY WELL AT ALL. ANY
MCV/S THAT MIGHT BE SPUN UP FM ACTVTY NOT CAUGHT BY MDLS THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FCST. WUD THINK ANY BOUNDARIES WL LKLY SET UP ALG
AND E OF RVR SO ANY POPS WUD BE CONFINED TOO THOSE AREAS.

BEYOND...UPR RDG EXPCTD TO BUILD OVR AREA INTO MIDWEEK WITH TROF OVR
WRN US. PERHAPS SLIGHT BREAK FM HUMIDITY TOMORROW BUT THERMAL RDG
FCST TO SLIDE E OF AREA BY TUES BRINGG RETURN OF HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS. MDLS CONT WITH WRN US TROF AND ERN US HIGH WITH AREA
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON EJECTG
SECNDRY LOW ACRS NRN PLNS WED/THURS WITH FNTL BNDRY SAGGING INTO
AREA. THEREFORE WL KEEP POPS FOR THURS AND INTRODUCE FOR FRIDAY.

.DVN...
IA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 6 PM CDT
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078
IL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 8 PM CDT
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024

05

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