Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT THU APR 22 1999

LTST SFC ANALYS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR SRN IA WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACRS ERN KS/NRN MO/ERN IA/WCTRL IL. 12Z UA
ANALYS SHOWS H500 LOW OVR IDAHO WITH 70+KT JET ROTATING ARND BASE
OF TROF AND INTO PLAINS. 60-80M HGT FALLS NOTED S OF THE LOW WITH
130KT H300 JET STILL DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROF WHICH WUD
SUPPORT FURTHER DIGGING. SHORTWV ACRS KS COMBINED WITH STG
DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF H500 JET PUNCHING INTO PLAINS
HELPG TO IGNITE TSTMS OVR KS WHICH ARE NOW MOVG THRU NWRN MO.

FCST PROBS INCLUDE POPS/POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX/FLOODING.

PIECES APPEARS TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX ACRS PTNS OF
ERN IA/NWRN IL. H500 JET/MID LVL SHORTWV ARE FCST TO LIFT ACRS AREA
AND INTERSECT FNTL BNDRY THIS EVE. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE EXISTS
ALG AND S OF BNDRY TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES/WIND
DAMAGE WITH THIS AREA GENERALLY ALG AND S OF I-80. STG SFC HEATG
ONGOING ALG AND S OF BNDRY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO 70S KBRL 79 DEG).
THIS WL HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOS FURTHER LEADING TO INTENSIFICATION OF
TSTM ACTVTY AS IT MOVES OUT OF MO INTO SRN IA/WCTRL IL.

12Z AVN/NGM APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING BETTER WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES AT 18Z THAN ETA SO WL FOLLOW ACCORDINGLY. LUKS AS THO WERE
LUKG AT A 6HR OR SO PD OF VERY HVY RAINFALL MAINLY FM 00Z-06Z.
OVRNGT RAINS DUMPED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVR NRN PTNS OF CWA WITH AMTS
ROUGHLY AN INCH OR LESS FURTHER S. 6 HRLY FFG VALUES ARE RUNNING
CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. EXPCT TO SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN ACRS CWA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PSBL. WL
CONT WITH FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT. AGAIN FEEL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WL BE
MAINLY THIS EVE BUT EFFECTS ON AREA RVRS WL LAST LONG INTO WEEKEND.
FLASH FLOODG ALSO A THREAT THO WITH FAIRLY QUICK STORM MOTION THIS
SHUD DIMINISH POTL FOR A LOT OF PROBS. SHORTWV AND ASSOCD LIFT WL
SCOOT N OF AREA OVRNGT WHEREBY POPS/HVY RAIN THREAT WL DIMINISH. WL
HANG ON WITH LOW POPS FRI MORNG BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD. CANADIAN HIGH WL SHIFT FNTL BNDRY AND
RAIN CHCS WELL TO OUR S OVR WEEKEND. WUD THINK COOL GIVEN STRENGTH
OF HIGH THO EXPCT TO SEE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WHICH SHUD OFFSET
COOLG SOME. END RESULT WL BE DRY WX WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS OVR WEEKEND.

...3 TO 5 DAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ALL AGREE ON SOME WEAKENING OF WRN US UPR LOW
OVR UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTG IT NEWD INTO PLAINS ON MONDAY AS
UPSTREAM KICKER DROPS INTO PAC NW. TIMING DIFFS AMONG MDLS. LTST
NOGAPS NOW IN LINE WITH FASTER MRF WHICH BRINGS SYS INTO AREA LATE
MONDAY/TUESDAY. PRVS FCST HAS MONDAY DRY SO WL INTRODUCE CHC POPS
AND CONT INTO TUESDAY.

.DVN...
IL...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL.
IA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.

05

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