Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 PM EDT MON MAY 17 1999

VSBL SATELLITE AND 88D LOOPS SHOW STRONG TO SVR TSTMS FIRING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF MCS MOVING ACRS LAKE MI. AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER VERY
UNSTABLE WITH LIS APPROACHING -12 AND CAPES GREATER THAN 4000 J/KG.
EVEN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LVL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW...WITH THIS
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SCT SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THRU 9 PM. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE EARLY ON...THRU APPROX 5 PM WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDRY OVR NRN INDIANA
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH
THESE STORMS AS THE WET BULB ZERO REMAINS AROUND 9K FEET.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE NGM
APPEARS TO MOVE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH SE LWR A LITTLE
QUICKER. PREFER THE SLOWER ETA SOLUTION DUE TO WEAK REX BLOCK OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC. TREMENDOUS THERMODYNAMICS THIS EVENING OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA...HOWEVER UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING AS UPPER JET REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS/THETA-E AXIS ALSO MOVES EAST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...TAKING
BEST TSTM POTENTIAL WITH IT. ROUND TWO MOVES IN TUE AFTN AS NEGATIVE
TILT UPPER TROF AND STRONG DPVA MOVES IN...HOWEVER THERMODYNAMICS
NIL OVER SE LOWER WITH RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF THE STATE. MODELS
INDICATE THAT 850 TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN THE AFTN...THUS EVEN
WITH 500 COLD POOL OF -20C...VERTICAL TOTALS ONLY RUNNING IN THE MID
20S. WIND FIELDS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 KT 850 WNDS FCST.
THUS SE LWR MAY DODGE ANOTHER BULLET. TODAY THERMAL AND MOISTURE
AXIS WERE COINCIDENT...OTHERWISE IT COULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH MORE
EXPLOSIVE EVENT. MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD...BUT TOO AGRESSIVE
WITH CLEARING TUE NIGHT...THUS WILL BUMP TEMPS UP TUE NIGHT. PWS
RUNNING AROUND 1.3 INCHES BUT NO FLOOD THREAT WITH CONVECTION ATTM
SINCE WE HAVE BEEN SO DRY THIS MONTH...NORTHERN GENESEE COUNTY ONLY
AREA TO WATCH ATTM SINCE THEY RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN
IN LAST NIGHTS MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION.

.DTX...NONE.

GSS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
235 PM EDT MON MAY 17 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM THE
THUMB SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAINS FROM THE THUMB THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTH...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRESENT A THREAT TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH 900 PM THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...
FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OKEEFE

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
235 PM EDT MON MAY 17 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM THE
THUMB SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINS VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAINS FROM THE THUMB THROUGH THE SAGINAW VALLEY. HOWEVER...AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTH...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRESENT A THREAT TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH 900 PM THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...
FOR LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OKEEFE