Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EDT THU JUN 10 1999

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

NO LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...AND FEW LARGE SCALE
FEATURES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST MI THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MANY
MESOSCALE FEATURES RESIDE TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WITH ELONGATED
TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST...THE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH. LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...OUTFLOWS...AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT TAKES
PLACE...IN THE WARM MOIST LAYER...WILL FACTOR IN FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE VERY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL ENABLE LAKE ONSHORE
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION THETA E RIDGE LAYS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE ENOUGH
TO ENCOURAGE SOME DEVELOPMENT EVEN AT NIGHT.

NO LARGE SCALE CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHEAST MI AS FAVORED JET
QUADRANTS REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING
WOULD EXPECT ONLY THE SCATTERED VARIETY STORMS. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW
ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY PULSE IN
NATURE. ALSO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND
1.25...AND ANY STORMS MOVING REAL SLOW...WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. UNSETTLED SCENARIO PICTURED RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AND STILL LOOKING AT A COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MRF IS
BACKING OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTH OF THE COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK.

FWC TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...HENCE WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE.

.DTX...NONE.

STRUBLE