Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 1999

FORECAST FOCUS IS IN SHORT TERM AND IS SEVERE WEATHER.

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ALONG DRY LINE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AS
IT MOVED INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. GOOD SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS CWA AS NOTED BY SPC WITH 75KTS
FLOW AT 500MB AT MPX THIS MORNING. BETTER SHEAR FURTHER NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NUMEROUS WARNINGS ISSUED IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AND MOVE NORTHEAST...BUT MOVE MORE EAST
AS A LINE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE AND MSAS SHOWS SURFACE
LIFTED INDICES OF -13 IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CWA AND -9 NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

STORMS ALSO DEVELOPED IN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE OF 300 MB JET. JET MOVES NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING AND AREA OF DIVERGENCE PULLS THROUGH AS WELL. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH WITH 850MB THETA-E RIDGE MOVING INTO
EASTERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN FORECAST
FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS EVENING.

UPPER LOW ALONG NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST AS MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED 70-90M HEIGHT FALLS NORTHEAST OF
LOW. HOWEVER...RUC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BIT MORE EASTERLY
MOVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES...THEN A BRIEF BREAK OCCURS BEFORE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW MOVES IN. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE