Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999

AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING WAS GENERATING SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE EXCEEDED 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IRON RANGE.
SERIOUS FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AS OF THIS WRITING ACROSS THE IRON
RANGE. WITH CELLS TRAINING ACROSS THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM
WITH FLOODING ACROSS THE RANGE FOR A WHILE BEFORE DAYBREAK. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTERACTING WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH THICKNESS DIFLUENCE WERE
CREATING NEARLY TROPICAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

LAPS INDICATED THETA-E IN THE 360 RANGE...ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES
CLOSE TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE TROPICAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PWAT.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...CLEARING NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA BY 0000 UTC...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY 0600 UTC. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...OR AT LEAST PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. FWC MOS TEMPS A LITTLE TOO LOW...AND
HAVE RAISED THEM A LITTLE BIT IN MOST SITUATIONS VIA FAN.

.DLH...NONE.

DAP