Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL SEVER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH
RESPECTS TO COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND ALONG WARM FRONT LOCATED
NEAR THE EASTERN MOST CWA.

APPEARS TO BE AN INTERESTING NIGHT DEVELOPING. MOST CONVECTION
EARLIER AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF SFC WARM FRONT JUST
EAST OF CWA. PCPN FALL SHOULD REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY SO EXPECT ONLY A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SFC
LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROF. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL. COLD
FRONT ITSELF VIA SFC ANALYSIS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA/NE
COLORADO. VIS PICS INDICATING TS ALREADY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
WELL. APPEARS LOWEST WBZ TEMPS WILL BE NEAR WARM FRONT TO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WBZ FURTHER WEST.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WHICH ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. 20Z ADAP LI INDEX SHOWING -10 ACROSS MUCH
OF CWA WITH CAP STRENGTH BETWEEN 1 AND 2. ALTHOUGH GOOD MOISTURE
FLUX CONV AND WAA PRESENT NEAR WARM FRONT HAVE ALSO NOTICED MOIST
FLUX CONV ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS.
WILL THEREFORE MENTION THE CHC OF SEVERE ACROSS THE WEST AS THESE
STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE REGION. WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND PROFILE...LOWER WBZ AND DECENT VVELS PRECEDING COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE HERE ALSO. POPS WILL NO VARY MUCH FROM
CAT 80 POP OVER THE EAST TO 70 POP OVER WEST SINCE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING.

NGM/AVN WERE SIMILAR THIS MORNING WITH SFC FEATURES THE ETA
APPEARING TO BE TO PROGRESSIVE WITH OUR SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED
EARLIER TODAY OVER WESTERN NE. NGM/AVN ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A SLIGHT
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...EXPECT TO COLD AIR TO BEGIN FLOW MORE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WAA/MOISTURE ADVT CONTINUING AHEAD
OF SYSTEM EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SFC PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE WITH
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE  SOUTHWESTERN U.S
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK WAVES ACROSS NM/CO AND W KS. AS A
RESULT EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AS SFC HIGH BUILD INTO THE AREA.
WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC DWPT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BEHIND THIS FRONT THAN WHAT NGM INDICATES WILL THEREFORE LEAN
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY FURTHER EASTWARD.
WEAK VORT LOBES CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM/CO AND W KS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRAD RETURN IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY AS SFC FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVT...WILL MENTION CHC
POPS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA PCPN FREE
FOR NOW. TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK REASONABLE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TREND NOW IN MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS IS TO SPEED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE 5H LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. ONLY
THE CANADIAN IS STILL LAGGING BEHIND THIS TREND. GIVEN THIS...WILL
FOLLOW VERY CLOSELY TO MRF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN ITS
SIMILARITIES WITH THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND IT IS
THE ONLY ONE WITH DETAILED GUIDANANCE PAST THAT POINT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 058/076 052/083 056 700
GCK 058/076 051/085 056 700
EHA 056/078 052/086 058 800
LBL 057/077 052/083 057 800
HYS 056/073 050/082 057 800
P28 061/078 053/084 058 720

.DDC...NONE.

RB/DS