Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS MORNING IS WHETHER CONVECTION THATS GOING
OVER EXTREME NE NEW MEXICO...SE COLORADO...AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. 7Z SFC CHART SHOWED MOIST AXIS RUNNING UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO SE COLO. 850 MB MOISTURE RUNS FROM THE BIG BEND
AREA NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. 850 MB PROFILERS
SHOWING WINDS HAVE GONE FROM SE TO SW DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LAST NIGHTS DELTA TS RANGED FROM 20 TO 24
OVER AREAS TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST. WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
ATTM...WILL OPT TO THROW IN A POP TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
FOR THIS MORNING.

THE REST OF THE FCST PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...GOOD MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED. CAP WILL BE
OVERHEAD...HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MCON TAKING PLACE THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BUST THE CAP. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF A POP FOR THE NORTH
FOR TODAY TO COVER CONVECTION THAT MIGHT GET GOING AS FRONT
APPROACHES.

FOR SUNDAY...WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW POP FOR THE SE AS CONVECTION
EXITS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NEW AVN AND CANADIAN SPECTRAL SHOW THE SWRN US UPPER LOW TO BE A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING EWRD. THIS MAY MEAN THAT TUESDAY
MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDER INSTEAD OF CURRENT DRY FCT. WILL LV
ALONE ATTM TO AWAIT FURTHER GUIDANCE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 085/055 074/051 080 460
GCK 086/054 071/048 079 460
EHA 088/051 072/048 079 240
LBL 085/056 075/052 081 460
HYS 080/052 072/047 076 370
P28 084/059 076/053 082 262

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-222000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

...SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE MID-LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF A GREENSBURG TO GARDEN CITY LINE THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS.

LATER TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION STARTING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AFTER 3 PM. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTH...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING ITS PASSAGE. STORM
SPOTTERS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A SCOTT CITY TO SYRACUSE TO
ELKHART LINE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION WEATHER SITUATION FOR TODAY.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

MCCAMMON