Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT SUN APR 25 1999

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING OF PCPN
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

WV LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN UT WITH AVN AT 18Z VERIFYING
BEST ON POSITION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE ETA. DECENT 500 MB
COOL POOL PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS LOW OVER AZ/NM. SFC WINDS SUGGEST A
SFC FRONT SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN/CNTL SECTIONS OF
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN GOOD DIF HEATING ACROSS THIS ZONE EXPECT
THIS BOUNDARY AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES.

A 300 MB JET APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GOOD DIF VORT ADVT
PRESENT. ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS A 500 MB COOL
POOL APPROACHES. MOVEMENT OF VORT LOBE AND 300 MB JET AT 18Z SEEMS
TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS ENHANCE CU/SHRA DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
NM. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CAT POPS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR SHRA AND TS.
MODIFIED DDC SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES WBZ 8.8KFT SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

NEG TILTED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NE BY
18Z MONDAY WITH AVN/ETA POSITION LOOKING MORE REASONABLE THAN THE
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE NGM. COOL POOL WILL SLOW MOVE EAST
DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. MOISTURE PROFILES FROM AVN AND
ETA INDICATE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA
WITH A WEAK RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO CO. BACKING WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES.
WILL HOWEVER KEEP A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONTO
THE WEST COAST...MID AND UPPER LEVELS WINDS START TO BACK WITH A LEE
TROF BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. GIVEN SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT IN SERIES OF UPPER TROFS FILLING IN THE MEAN TROF POSITION
OVER SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS PROMISES TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER AND
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS.  THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL
PLAINS IN DIFFLUENT SECTOR OF AN INITIALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF
WHICH CUTS OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER IN THE PERIOD TO
FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER GREAT LAKES.  THIS NONPROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY UNSETTLED AIRMASS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  TEND TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS EFP ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING RAINS...AS UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE CAUSED ME TO BACK OFF
FMR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 048/062 046/069 049 861
GCK 044/062 044/072 048 861
EHA 043/065 042/073 048 840
LBL 045/063 044/069 050 860
HYS 050/060 046/065 048 982
P28 055/064 049/071 052 972

.DDC...NONE

RB/SMH