Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 1999

COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WITH FRONT SLOWING AND
POSSIBLE SURFACE BACKING OF THE WIND OVER THE SE CWA...WILL MENTION
SEVERE POSSIBLE EARLY.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL LOOKS TO BE RATHER JUICY BEHIND
FRONT SO WILL WORD MOSTLY CLOUDY. NGM APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
BEST WITH UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. H7-H5 AND H5-H3 OMEGA FIELDS PUTS A BULLSEYE OF
UPWARD FORCING JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN FACT...TO
VARYING DEGREES ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE UPWARD FORCING MOVING OVER
THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. BIG QUESTION EXISTS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TONIGHT. 12Z/16TH DELTA TS SHOW LESS THAN 20
TO OUR WEST AND 20 TO 25 TO OUR EAST. SO...THUNDER A QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT. WILL MENTION SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR 1ST
PD WORDING.

FOR MONDAY...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH UPPER WAVE
LOCATED TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL KEEP SM CHC POPS
SAVE THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE UPWARD FORCING WILL BE TO THE EAST. AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST...WELL SEE CLEARING SKIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
DUE TO DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND LESS CLOUD OVERHEAD.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY NICE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PATTERN FROM EASTERN PAC ACROSS CONUS WITH TRANSITORY WAVES
CONTS TO BE FCST BY EXTENDED RANGE MODELS. MRF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING WAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN CA ON TUE.  WILL
KEEP CURRENT CHC FOR TSTMS IN LATTER PART OF WEEK WITH THIS FEATURE
MOVING OUT. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...MRF DEVELOPS A HUGE CUTOFF LOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE.  OTHER MODELS
KEEP SYSTEM MORE OPEN WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE REASONALBE GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS BY THE
WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 054/067 045/079 051 330
GCK 053/066 043/078 049 330
EHA 048/070 041/081 047 200
LBL 056/069 046/080 052 330
HYS 056/066 042/078 049 440
P28 061/071 048/081 055 430

MCCAMMON/GERARD