Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999

PCPN, CLOUD COVER, AND RESULTING TEMPS WILL BE FCST PROBLEMS
THROUGH THE PERIODS THIS CYCLE.

00Z ANALYSIS SHOWED NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT 700 AND
500 MB IN FAR NORTHWESTERN PLAINS WITH 8H HIGH IN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  NOSE OF 850
MOISTURE COLOCATED WITH 850 CONVERGE IN EASTERN CO CAUSED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO FROM THAT HAVE ADVECTED INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE UPPER
LEVEL AIRMASS IN NORTHERN CWA AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS RESULTED
ATTM.  BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MOVES INTO DRYER ATMOS
IN CENTRAL KS BUT MAY HAVE TO UPDATE ZONES AT ISSUANCE FOR ANY
REMNANTS.

CONFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL BE THE MAJOR FACTOR IN
FCST.  ALL MODELS BRING MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
CENTRAL KS BY 18Z AHEAD OF COLD SHOT.  BELIEVE 850 WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING QUICKLY BACK TO THE NORTH, KEEPING BEST CONVERGENCE AND
UVVS OUT OF CWA. SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
AND WILL GO WITH DRY FCST. HIGHS SHOULD THEN BE MUCH ABOVE FAN
NUMBERS AND WILL LEAN TOWARD FWC GUIDANCE.

BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY TONIGHT WITH PVA INCREASING AHEAD OF
VORT LOBE OFF OF CALIFORNIA LOW AND 300 MB DIVERGENCE AS STJ MAX
CROSSES TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ETA CREATES NEARLY SATURATED ATMOS WITH
AVN QUITE MOIST AS WELL BY 12Z WED. SFC AND 850 HIGH OVER AREA
SHOULD HELP PREVENT SUCH HUGE MOISTURE INCREASES IN CWA AND HAVE
GONE WITH NGM WITH THESE FEATURES, ESPECIALLY WITH ITS PROGGING OF
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION.  THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
BE AVAILABLE IN THE SW ZONES FOR SCATTERED TSTORMS HOWEVER.

SFC AND 850 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST AS HIGH BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN KS FROM SOUTHWEST AND PVA INCREASES. SHOWERS SEEM
LEAST LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
LOWEST AND HIGHS SHOULD BE HIGHEST HERE.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FCST THIS CYCLE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC BE 074/047 071/051 074 0-3
GCK BE 074/047 070/050 073 013
EHA EE 073/048 072/051 074 033
LBL EE 074/048 073/050 075 033
HYS BE 075/045 073/049 073 0-3
P28 BE 077/050 076/052 078 002

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/MCCAMMON

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