Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU APR 15 1999

MAIN PBLM THIS FCST CYCLE IS LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF CONVECTION.

POSITION OF SFC FNT THRU FCST PDS IS CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST.  THIS
SYS WAS A BIT COLDER THAN EARLIER MODEL FCSTS KNOW OF AND HAS THUS
MADE IT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN EARILER EXPECTED.  DDC 18Z
RAOB SHOWING A STRONG WRM LAYER AT AROUND 1KM  AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING TO GET THRU THIS EVEN WITH MECHANICAL HELP FROM THE FRONT.
THUS MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FNT IN MY FAR ERN
ZNS WHERE ETA PROG CAPES GET INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG BRACKET BY 00Z.
PLENTY OF FOCUS ALONG THE FNT/DRY LINE IN BNDRY LYR ALONG WITH FAIR
TURNING LOW LVL HODO BUT ABV THIS WND PROFILE IS LACK LUSTER AND
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  MAY SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE EARLY THIS EVE IN
THE UNSTBLE AIR AND WL LEAVE SOME CHC POPS IN THIS ARE WITH MNTN OF
PSBL SVR.  GIVEN THE UPR SHEAR PROFILES THEY SHD MUSH OUT QUICKLY
INTO SQUALL LINE MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHTS STORMS.  WITH DECENT CAA BHND
FNT ALL BUT MY FAR E AND NE ZNS SHD BE BLO FWC FOR LOWS.

FOR REST OF FA WL LOOK FOR MID AND UPR LVL MSTR INCRG OVRNGT AS UPR
LOW OVR GRT BASIN SLOWLY ROTATES NORTHEAST PUSHING SPOKES OF VORT
ACRS THE RGN.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST CONTD MID LVL WRM AIR OVR MUCH OF
HI PLNS RNG SO HARD TO SEE ANY CNVCTN AND IN ANY CASE LOW LVL MSTR
WL BE MAINLY GONE WITH THE FNT.  WL LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY
THRU TUES THUS LIMITING HTG BELOW FWC HIGHS IN CAA AND CLDS.

LAST 2 PDS WL DPND VERY MUCH ON HOW MUCH SBSDNC AND CLRG OCCURS TUES
NGT INTO WED.  AT MOMENT WL PLAY A RSNBL AMNT OF SBSDNC AS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS THUS DRYING AND WARMING ON WED AND WILL GO ABV MOS FOR
HIGHS IN THE WRN ZNS AND AOB IN THE EAST WHERE CLRG WL BE DELAYED
TIL LATE DAY WED.  AMNT OF MSTR AVBL FOR ISENT LIFT OVR COLD DOME A
MAJOR QUESTION IN THE LATE TIME FRAME BUT FOR NOW WL STICK WITH A
CLEARING SCENARIO FOR WED.  LTR SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THIS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WITH A
HIGH AMPLIFIED BLOCKY PATTERN PREVAILING OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE 00Z
MRF IS EVEN LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS MRF RUN AND SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. ANY
NUMBER OF MINOR WAVES LIKELY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND EJECT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. QUITE WARM AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVAIL...AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
MOST DAYS. THE OPERATIONAL MRF IS NEAR THE UPPER EXTREME OF THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE FROM THE MIDWESTERN
STATES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...
SUPPORTING A SOMEWHAT LESS STRONGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EXISTING EXTENDED PACKAGE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 044/068 044/072 050 101
GCK 042/068 040/074 048 101
EHA 045/069 041/075 050 -0-
LBL 045/070 045/075 052 101
HYS 053/068 046/068 052 311
P28 058/072 050/073 055 310

JOHNSON/01