Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD EXTENDED DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 1999

FCST CHALLENGE ARE POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

18-19Z SFC DATA SHOWING COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS AREA. PERSISTENT TROF
OVER PANHANDLES AND INTO SE CO IN PLACE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
TRANSLATED TO THE SW TODAY. TSRA AGAIN FIRING ALONG THE TROF WITH
SLOW NE MOVEMENT. THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH AREA, BUT WITH
SUBTLE 5H WAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO, THINK TROF MAY REACH
WESTERN AREAS LATER. VIS SAT PICS ALSO SHOWING AREAS OF ACCAS NORTH
OF EHA AND LBL AND BETWEEN DDC AND GAG WITH CAP NEARING ZERO. ADAP
PRODUCTS SHOWING GOOD 850 MB MOIST CONV, THETA ADVECTION, AND 3HR
SFC PRES FALLS COLOCATED WEST OF GCK. STRONG SFC TEMP GRADIENT
ALSO SHOWN FROM OVC AND RAIN-COOLED NW KS INTO CWA. BELIEVE
DISCONTINUITIES ALSO PRESENT WHERE MORNING STORMS DIED OUT IN GBD AND
P28 AREA. BEST LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN CWA AS
S/W ENTERS WESTERN NE AND DRAGS ACROSS NORTHERN KS.  WITH ALL THIS
IN MIND, WILL SHOTGUN POPS ACROSS AREA TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES IN
NORTH.

FOR MONDAY, THINK RA/TSRA WILL AGAIN LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE S/W WORK EAST AND WILL PUT POPS IN ALL BUT WEST. HARD TO NAIL
DOWN HIGHS AS OUTFLOW AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AS SEEN IN GLD AREA
TODAY WILL HINDER HEATING, BUT ANY AREAS WITH LITTLE CLOUDS WILL GET
NEAR TODAYS HIGHS.

FWC AND FAN KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR TUES BUT DONT SEE MUCH TO SUPPORT
THIS AND WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST GOING FOR THE MOST PART.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

SFC BNDRY NOW OVR WRN HIGH PLAINS CONTS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE ERLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED PD.  GOOD SRLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF ERN U.S.
SFC HIGH SHOULD CONT TO TO FEED LOW LVL MOIST INTO THE CNTRL PLNS.
THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN U.S. CONTS TO MIGRATE
EAST.  THE MRF SHOWS A DECENT COOL FNT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO THIS WITH COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO PUT CHC FOR TSRA IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 067/090 068/091 068 32-
GCK 067/091 067/092 068 320
EHA 068/093 069/094 070 300
LBL 069/092 070/094 070 3-0
HYS 067/090 066/092 067 431
P28 071/093 072/095 071 32-

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/GERARD