Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 1999

SURFACE FRONT DIFFICULT TO DEFINE BECAUSE OF EARLIER RAIN CHILLED
AIR BUT BELIEVE IT EXTENDS FROM EMP TO ICT TO P28 TO GAG.  BELIEVE
EARLIER AFD IN THAT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE IN AN EAST WEST BAND.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES PER HPC QPF.  THIS IS ALSO WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
LOWEST BECAUSE OF LAST NIGHTS RAINS.  HOWEVER I AM CONCERNED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR SURFACE FRONT IN OUR SE ZONES.
THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL TAP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

BELIEVE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MAIN
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...AS UPPER WAVES ARE VERY WEAK.  WAVE APPROACHING
BIG BEND IS BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY WV LOOP.  THIS
WILL AUGMENT DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE - DDC MORNING SOUNDING
HAD 167 PERCENT OF CLIMO PRECIPITABLE WATER.  ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDING
SHOWS REDUCED INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE COOLER POST FRONTAL
AIR...DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 6 F HIGHER THAN FWC AND WINDS ARE
EASTERLY UPSLOPE.  UPPER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST...PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY...AND REMAIN LIGHT.  ALL THIS ADDS UP TO A POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND FLOODING.  ALL DEPENDS ON LOCATION OF MAIN
FOCUS...WHICH USUALLY IS ON THE MESOSCALE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALTHOUGH I HAVE LEFT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OUT OF WATCH...SWING SHIFT
SHOULD MONITOR FOR DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION PATTERN.

HIGH WET BULB ZERO AND REDUCED WINDEX SUGGEST THREAT OF HAIL AND
DOWNBURSTS IS REDUCED OVER LAST NIGHT.

GOING A LITTLE WARMER THAN FWC ON OVERNIGHT LOWS BECAUSE OF MOS
MOISTURE DEFICIT AT 18Z.  TOMORROW SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN HIGH GEAR.  THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT WILL BE MORE OF THE IMBEDDED VARIETY.
LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SEEMS LIKE A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS IN STORE...WITH THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSING FARTHER WEST AND BECOMING MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA.  THIS WILL LEAVE OUR CWA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT.  SHORT WAVES...AS WELL ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE...WILL RIDE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE...GIVING
PRIME CONDITIONS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.  AS IS NORMAL...TIMING WILL
BE KEY TO WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES AND A FACTOR IN HOW LONG IS
STAYS AROUND.  FOR NOW...WILL STAY CLOSE TO AVN/MRF WILL BRINGING
ONE VORT CENTER THROUGH CWA NORTH TO SOUTH BY TUES MORNING...THEN
ANOTHER LATE WED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  OF COURSE...ANY LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE FOCUS REGIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW...LOOKS AS IF UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE LACKING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYS PRETTY HIGH.  NCEP ENSEMBLES FROM MRF NOT AVAILABLE THIS
WEEKEND DAY...BUT THIS EFP FOLLOWS TREND OF 30/00Z ENSEMBLE RUN.
LOW TEMPS WON/T VARY MUCH ACROSS PERIOD...BUT HIGHS WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE LEVEL AGAIN.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST

DDC 069/084 064/085 064 534
GCK 067/082 065/084 063 534
EHA 063/083 063/086 062 423
LBL 064/084 064/085 063 533
HYS 063/079 064/079 061 756
P28 072/091 070/087 069 445

.DDC...FFA TONIGHT KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-080-081-089-090-.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO
JETMORE TO COLDWATER.

HUNTER/BURKE