Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 1999

DIFFICULT FCST PBLM THIS CYCLE AND RUNNING BHND ON TIME SO WL BE
BRIEF.  MAIN QSTN IS WHAT WL HAPPEN WITH FNT NOW MOVG INTO NRN PLNS
AND HOW WILL IT ACT WITH TIME.

MRNG ANALS CONT TO HV DEEP MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS OVR RGN WITH
STRONG LOW LVL SRLY FLOW CONTG TO REINFORCE THE DEEP MSTR.  LEE TROF
NOW SHWG 1002 MB LOW NEAR LAMAR CO WHICH ONLY THE MESO ETA HAD FCST.
THIS FEATURE SHD LINGER IN THE LEE TROF AS THE POLAR FNT MOVES OUT
INTO THE HIGH THETAE AIR THIS EVE TRIGGERING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CNVCTN.  RAIN COOLING ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY SHD FORCE IT S THRU
THE LEE TROF WITH THE WRM LOW IN E COLORADO ENDING UP IN THE PNHDNLS
BY MRNG AND JUST S OF THE FNT.  TOUGH TO KNOW WHERE THE BNDRY WL
STOP AS IT WL VERY MUCH DEPEND UPON THE AMOUNT OF CNVCTN TNGT BUT
FOR NOW WL PLAY IT TO MOVE THRU MOST ALL OF MY ZNS BY MRNG BRINGING
EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE TO MOST AREAS AND WRAPING THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE BACK THRU MY ZNS AGN OVRNGT.  WL MNTN FOG REDVLPG IN ALL
BUT MY FAR WRN ZNS AND A RETURN TO CLOUDY SKIES OVRNGT WITH BEST POPS
TO BE IN THE ERN 1/2 OF MY ZNS.  PER SPC OUTLOOK COULD AGAIN SEE
AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM FIRE LATE THIS AFTN IN HI SBCAPE ALG THE DRY
LINE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED BNDRY ARRIVES.

HAVING MADE THIS COMMITMENT...NEXT CHALLENGE WL BE HOW LONG THE COOL
AIR LASTS OVR THE RGN AND HOW STRONG THE UPSLOPE IS.  MODELS ARE NO
HELP HERE SINCE THEY CANNOT HANDLE THE NON-HYDROSTATIC DYNAMICS. WL
PLAY THIS ONE ENTIRELY BASED ON CONCEPTUAL MODEL HOLDING THE COOLER
AIR WITH UPSLOPE AND A LTL ISENT LIFT THRU WED AND WED NGT BEFORE
FINALLY ALLOWING SOME RETURN FLOW AND DRYING FOR THURSDAY.  END
RESULT IS TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BOTH TMRW AND THURS AND TO INCLUDE
MUCH MORE CLOUD THAN MOS HAS WITH REDVLPG FOG EACH NIGHT.  WILL EITHER
BE HERO OR GOAT ON THIS ONE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF WANTING TO DEVELOP A 5H HIGH
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND
THE APPALACHIANS. THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IS THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE HIGH WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A LATITUDINAL ORIENTATION WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE KANSAS AREA.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE THINGS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT.  THE PESKY POOLING
OF ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN
OF FADING UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN OUR FIRST GOOD SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE HEADS OUR WAY. AN 850 TROUGH IS PROGGED ON MOST MODELS
TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE SAT/SUN TIME PERIOD WITH 850 HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE 60+
DEW POINTS/CLOUDS EAST OF OUR AREA TO ALLOW MORE SUN AND DAYTIME
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. HOWEVER...BY MID WEEK...A RETURN OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IS PROGGED ONCE AGAIN.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND BKN TO OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GOING
UNTIL PERHAPS ON THE WEEKEND WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

MRF HIGH TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM DURING THE DAY...AT LEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...AND PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LOWS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 066/078 065/081 066 322
GCK 066/079 066/082 065 322
EHA 067/082 064/085 064 222
LBL 067/080 067/082 067 322
.HYS 065/077 065/079 065 332
P28 070/082 070/082 068 333

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/SLEIGHTER