Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
252 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 1999

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH BE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND THEN TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING COOLER AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W OVER E CO WHICH ALSO APPEARS ON
W/V LOOP EARLIER THIS MORNING. NGM/ETA/AVN ALL SEEM TO PICK UP THIS
FEATURE AND MOVE THIS S/W INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA BY EVENING.
850 WINDS INDICATING 30-40 KT WINDS ACROSS W KS AND THE PANHANDLE OF
TX WITH GOOD MOISTURE/TEMP ADVT PRESENT. 700 MB SUGGESTING ANOTHER
WAVE LOCATED OVER WY AND SW SOUTH DAKOTA. HT FALLS AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE SUGGESTS THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN
QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE PCPN COVERAGE.

SFC FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KS AT 18Z AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT. BEST LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NEXT S/W WILL BE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH DOES DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE CO WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER CWA. WILL THEREFORE MENTION
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL GO WITH 30-40 POPS
FURTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE LIFT WILL BE WEAKER.

ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY ON
SAT. APPEARS BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA SO
WILL LEAVE PCPN OUT AT THIS TIME. WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND LESS MOISTURE PRESENT WILL MENTION
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WESTERN AND BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
EAST. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MAY INHIBIT TEMPS FROM RISING AS MUCH AS
850 TEMPS SUGGEST. AS A RESULT GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL NOT
STRAY FAR.

DO NOT BELIEVE CAP WILL BE A STRONG AS MODELS PROGGED LATE SAT/SAT
PM. INSTAB SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG LEE TROF CAN NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHC FOR TS LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND EXPECT ANY THAT DO DEVELOP TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL THEREFORE MENTION SLT CHC OVER THE WEST SAT PM.

SUNDAY WILL SEE MID LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WEST AND ALLOW LEE
TROF TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AS RIDGE BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LITTLE FORCING FOUND ALOFT. WAA
CONTINUE WHICH WILL INCREASE CAP STRENGTH DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE
WILL KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ALITTLE WARMER THAN SAT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TAKES RESIDENCY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE ONLY MAJOR DEVIATION BEING DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...WHEN A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE HIGH CLOSE TO THE U.S./CAN BORDER.

GIVEN THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS PROGGED AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB
DURING THE PERIOD...FEEL CHANCES OF ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.
THINKING ABOUT REMOVING THEM COMPLETELY...BUT SO NOT TO FLIP-FLOP TOO
MUCH ON THE GOING FORECAST...WILL BACK DOWN TO SIMPLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...MRF PROGGED 850 TEMPS INDICATE LOWER 30S
WEST AND 25 TO 30 EAST. THIS COMPARES TO SFC HIGHS OF THE LOWER 100S
WEST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EAST. THESE FIGURES SEEM REASONABLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN. MRF GUIDANCE IS AIMING FOR UPPER 90S FOR
THE DDC AREA DURING THE PERIOD WHICH FITS NICELY WITH THE 850 BASED
TEMPS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MRF IS HINTING TOWARD ENHANCED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE BAJA
COAST...WILL LOWER HIGHS A CAT ON THESE DAYS. WILL PHRASE
TEMPERATURE RANGE OF 90 TO 100 DURING THE PERIOD FOR HIGHS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND 85 TO 95 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 65
TO 75 DEGREE RANGE SEEM REASONABLE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 060/085 066/091 067 400
GCK 057/087 064/090 066 400
EHA 056/089 059/092 064 302
LBL 060/087 065/091 067 400
HYS 059/083 063/090 067 610
P28 063/086 068/089 069 600

.DDC...NONE.

RB/SLEIGHTER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON
TO MEADE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND
TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALSO HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THEY FORM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

RB

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON
TO MEADE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO RISE AND
TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALSO HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THEY FORM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

RB