Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999

PER VIS PICS...SOME TCU TRYING TO GO UP OVER HAMILTON COUNTY ALONG
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM HAYS TO SYRACUSE. THIS FEATURE
MAY IGNITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SFC CONVERGENCE IS ON THE
WEAK SIDE.

STORMS ONCE AGAIN GOING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
NGM PICKS UP THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA. ATTM...SEE
NO REASON WHY STORMS WONT MOVE INTO NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET.
ALSO...GRANADA PROFILER SHOWING SE FLOW FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 750
MB.

IF WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN CWA DOESNT LIGHT UP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN COLORADO STORMS WILL PROBABLY MAKE A BEELINE FOR
CWA DURING THE NIGHT. UPSHOT IS THAT POPS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. 1ST PD FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED
SINCE CWA DID NOT SEE WIDESPREAD HVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WILL WORD HVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY...SAME AS IT EVER WAS. MORNING CONVECTION WILL MOVE
EAST...GIVING WAY TO CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS SUGGEST SAME SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP GOOD
POPS GOING WITH THE MENTION FOR HVY RAIN AGAIN. IF CWA REALIZES
PLENTY OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN FFA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT. BEARS WATCH.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMER...SO FCST WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. LOW
POPS WILL STILL BE MENTIONED WITH THE IDEA THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MAY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY TO ACT AS FOCI FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF SFC FRONT
DRIFTING INTO OK/TX WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. AS A NW FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A SERIES WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW AND PRESENTS OF A VORT LOBE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
AVN/MRF. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A CHC OF TS GOING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS KS EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVE
MOVE ALONG THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW. WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR NOW WITH A MENTION OF SLT CHC OF TS AS EACH WAVE
PASSES. APPARENT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK SO KEEP
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL REBOUND ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 057/079 057/080 059 647
GCK 056/078 056/079 058 647
EHA 055/080 055/081 056 647
LBL 057/079 057/081 060 647
HYS 061/080 061/081 062 536
P28 064/079 065/083 065 647

.DDC...NONE.

MCCAMMON/BURGERT