Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
428 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 1999

...MAIN QSTN THIS CYCLE IS WHICH MODEL TO BELIEVE IF ANY...

ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS NRN KS TDY
AND TNGT SO LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN STEEP AND WL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHC
POPS MOST AREAS FOR BOTH PDS. ETA INITIALIZED BEST ON SFC MSL PTTN
AND WL THUS USE IT FOR WINDS AND TEMPS AS IT BRINGS A SFC LOW OUT
ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. THIS IS A BIG CHG FM GOING FCST FOR WINDS.  MY
FAR ERN ZNS SHD SEE PRETTY BRISK SOUTH WINDS EARLY BUT AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD FRONT XPCT WIND TO SHIFT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY.  NO WIND
ADVISORY ATTM BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH.

HAVE UNDERCUT FWC TEMPS SOME FOR CAA AND CLOUDS ALL PDS.  GRADIENT
SHD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF TOMORROW WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MSTR AND CAA SO WILL STAY UNDER FWC THRU THE
FCST AND KEEP WIND UP.  TOO FAR IN FUTURE FOR THIS FCST BUT NEXT
SHIFT MAY NEED WIND ADVISORY BOTH TONIGHT AND AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. LATEST AVN/MRF SUGGESTING COOLER AIR TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
WILL THEREFORE TWEAK TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 068/040 062/035 062 33-
GCK 064/038 064/035 066 33-
EHA 065/039 065/036 066 33-
LBL 067/040 066/036 067 33-
HYS 070/043 058/035 058 55-
P28 075/050 065/043 062 330

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/RB

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-050600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 1999

...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW SPOTTERS
COULD BE NEEDED AROUND HAYS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER LEVELS WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.  WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
THE CENTER OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKE
THIS THEY OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS SO SOME MAY BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO AND ON
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY.  THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY TO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING THE NIGHT.  EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRONG
SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY WEARS
ON.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:

HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON