Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 1999

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF STORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY IS THE ETA. IT/S INITIALIZATION MATCHED BEST
WITH HAND PLOTTED MAPS.

8H LOW PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG A GOOD BAROTROPIC ZONE. HIGH SFC DEW POINT VALUES AND
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SETS THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. SHOULD BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AS WELL. ACTUALLY POP MENTIONED IN ZONE WILL DEPEND A LOT ON
STORMS THAT FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEIR LOCATION COME ISSUANCE
TIME. FOR NOW...THINKING OF A BLANKET 50 POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH A MENTION OF /SEVERE/ IN THE TEXT. ALSO WILL MENTION 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS IN AND AROUND THE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE PREVAILING WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION ELEMENT.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE BEST LIFT DOESN/T EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP CHCS OF STORMS IN THE FAR EAST
FOR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WEST AND AROUND 80 EAST BASED UPON FCST 8H
TEMPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AVN SUGGESTS DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
TEXAS. IF THIS PANS OUT...WEAK UPSLOPE OF THE MOISTURE WILL INITIATE
AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

ON WEDNESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A
WEAK VORTMAX SWINGS AROUND THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL MAY BE AROUND IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST TO HELP TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA.

FOR TEMPS...TONIGHT WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
LOW TO MIDDLE 60 DEW POINTS WILL LAST THE LONGEST. ELSEWHERE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50 DEW POINTS SHOULD ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND THOSE FIGURES AS THE DRIER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION. THE FAR WESTERN SECTION WILL PROBABLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SO
EXPECT THE COOLEST TEMPS THERE. MENTION ALREADY LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL GO WARMER IN
THE EAST WHERE EXPECTING RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND FORMATION OF
CLOUDS. FOR WEDNESDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ESTABLISH ITSELF. 8H TEMPS BY THE AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE
NORTHEAST. THIS TRANSLATES TO LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

AVN/MRF FITS NICELY WITH LAST RUN OF ECMWF MODEL THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD.  BUT MRF SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH STRONG UPPER FEATURES ON
SATURDAY PERIOD.  WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS AS THINK THERE
WILL BE ONLY FEW PARTS OF CWA RECEIVING THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY ONE
TIME.  TEMP SPREAD FOR LOWS THROUGH 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
10-15 DEGS...AND PERHAPS 15-20 DEGS SPREAD FOR HIGHS.  HARD TO
PINPOINT WHEN THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
WINDY/BREEZY WORDING FOR NOW.  RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.  DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADD MENTION OF STORMS ON
SAT PERIOD...BUT LATE DAY/EVENING IS POSSIBLE IN WEST AND NORTH CWA.
THUS WILL BREAK OUT A SAT NIGHT PERIOD /PER 5.5/ AND GROUP WITH SUN
AND MON FOR 20 POP THROUGH PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST

DDC BB 059/082 055/087 058 19520
GCK BB 055/082 052/088 058 19510
EHA UB 053/084 052/092 060 19500
LBL BB 055/082 053/090 060 19500
HYS BB 059/080 057/084 060 1952-
P28 EB 063/082 060/085 057 1953-

.DDC...NONE.

DS/TB