Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT MON MAY 31 1999

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF CWA WITH S/W.  SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
EVIDENT OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER WAVE OVER ID MOVING
SOUTHEAST.  SFC ANALYSIS (06Z) SYNOPTIC FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO.  PRESSURE RISES AROUND 2MB.  DEWPOINTS A BIT SCRAMBLED
OVER SW KANSAS WITH PASSAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW
WELL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS TODAY AND WHERE SFC LOW/TRIPLE POINTS
SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.

NOT TO EXCITED ABOUT NGM SOLUTION AS IT PUSHES DRYLINE MUCH FURTHER
EAST THIS AFTERNOON THAN ETA/AVN.  WITH COOL AIR PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH THAN
NGM...MORE LIKE ETA/AVN.  EXPECT THAT DURING THIS MORNING WINDS
SHOULD AGAIN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE THE DEWPOINT RISE
BACK TO THE 60S.  LIKE THE ETA IN ITS PLACING THE SFC LOW IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER
BAROCLINIC REGION SHOULD MOVE OVER AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS BRING CAPES UP TO 2500+ J/KG BY 00Z WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR.

GOING TO GO FOR 30-40 POPS FOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND 20 PERCENT
EAST. THEN WILL GO WITH LIKELY FOR TONIGHT EAST AND WILL CERTAINLY
MENTION SEVERE WORDING.  WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR EAST FOR TUESDAY
MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR REST.

STAYING CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY BUT WENT JUST A FEW
DEGS HIGHER FOR TONIGHT.  ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER FOR TUESDAY AS WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WARM ALOFT WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR  COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 090/061 083/057 088 26-
GCK 092/059 084/055 088 340
EHA 093/057 084/055 090 320
LBL 092/058 084/055 089 240
HYS 088/062 084/057 088 262
P28 092/065 088/062 090 262

.DDC...NONE.

REITER