Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CDT MON APR 26 1999

12Z SFC AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING COOLEST AIR WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. DECENT INSTABILITY WAS
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALLOWED FOR SOME CU TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. COLD POOL WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST WITH GOOD DELTA T VALUES PRESENT. AS THIS COLD POOL SHIFTS TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TS OVER THE EXTREME
EASTERN MOST ZONES. FIRST THOUGHT AS PER OPU WAS TO LEAVE PCP OUT FOR
THE EAST...HOWEVER FROM LAST FEW SCANS FROM KDDC WSR 88D WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME EAST. CONVECTION ALSO
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CO.  BELIEVE
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING..HOWEVER
WILL ALSO MENTION SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE
MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
UPPER LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. GIVEN CURRENT DWPTS
AND WEAK ADVT AT THE SFC FROM 17Z ANAL BELIEVE FWC/FAN GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO CO ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYER AIR IN PLACE TO
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE 850
TEMPERATURE PROGS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAN MAY BE ALITTLE TO
PESSIMISTIC ON THE NUMBERS. FWC APPEARS MORE REASONABLE.

LOOKS AS IF A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST EARLY WED. THIS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN LEE TROF
DEVELOPMENT AND WAA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/W APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DECENT PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE
LEE TROF. WILL THEREFORE MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CA TUESDAY NIGHT. AVN CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE NEXT S/W MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
KS TOWARDS 00Z THU...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. WILL THEREFORE MENTION AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE PCPN FOR NOW SINCE
RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO DAY 4...BUT THEN
MRF SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING COMING UP FROM
GULF FOR PRECIP CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.  WILL WORD FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WED NIGHT AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY AS ONE STRONG WAVE EJECTS OUT OF UPPER SYSTEM ROTATING IN
4-CORNERS AREA.  DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY CONTINUED SYNOPTIC LIFT
INTO FRI AND SAT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT 7H AND 8H AND BELOW WILL NOT RESULT IN MORE CHANCES OF
PRECIP.  UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT AS OPEN TROF AND BE EAST OF
CWA SUN AND MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN COOLED LOWER LAYERS TO
WARM UP SOME.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 044/075 049/077 048 000
GCK 042/075 048/077 047 100
EHA 042/078 048/080 049 000
LBL 043/076 048/078 048 000
HYS 046/071 047/072 047 100
P28 051/076 052/076 050 200

.DDC...NONE

RB/BURKE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
447 PM CDT MON APR 26 1999

...COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE
CENTER OF THIS LOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF FUNNELS.  THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS.  NOR IS IT
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE VERY SHORT LIVED...SELDOM REACH THE GROUND...
ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN TORNADOES AND ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT
ON RADAR.  HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD BE TREATED WITH RESPECT.  IF YOU
SEE ONE...KEEP AN EYE ON IT AN BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF
NECESSARY.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:

HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

JOHNSON