Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CST SAT MAR 27 1999

MAIN QSTN THIS CYCLE IS EJECTING WV OVR SW US AND TIMING OF PCPN
ACRS KS.  GOING FCST HAS A GOOD HANDLE AND WILL NEED ONLY MINOR
TWEEKS.

THROUGH 18Z NGM CONTS TO DO BEST WITH UPR FEATURE OVR LAS AREA.  IR
AND H20 VPR IMAGERY CONFIRM THERE IS STILL A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR
BHND THIS SYSTEM SO IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO EJECT THAN ANY OF
THE MDLS HV FCST.  NO MATTER THO SINCE SYSTEM SHD TRACK NE ALG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTO KS DURING THE NIGHT WHICH ALL MODELS DO
WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.  LOOKS AS IF SYSTEM WILL
OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW MEXICO PLATEAU WITH THE TRIPLE POINT
AND THUS MOST UNSTABLE REGION PASSING ACRS NW OK AND ON NORTHEAST
THROUGH MY SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES.  WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR
TSTMS THIS AREA THOUGH WITH OCLN WRAPPING BACK TO SFC LOW IN SW KS
BY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL HV ENUF MID LVL INSTBLTY TO RUN A RISK
FOR SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED CNVCTN.  BECAUSE OF THIS WILL ALSO ADD A
MENTION OF CHC FOR SLEET OR SML HAIL FOR TONIGHT.

TMRWS FCST WL DEPEND UPON JUST HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  ONCE
THE SYSTEM TURNS THE CORNER IT SHOULD ACCELERATE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP WITH MODELS INDICATING 100+ KT JETLET ACRS
TRIPLE POINT IN NORTHEAST KS BY NOON MONDAY.  WL STICK PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE FASTER NGM IN THIS TIME FRAME ENDING CHCS FOR PCPN SW TO NE
DURING THE MORNING AND INTRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR DECENDING
COLD CONVEYOR BELT BEHIND THE LOW.  WIND SPEEDS MAY WELL REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY AFTN BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT LOOK AT THIS
FURTHER.

RAPID CLEARING ACRS ALL MY FA INDICATED IN SUSDNC AND DWNSLP FOR
MONDAY NGT INTO TUESDAY THOUGH FWC LOOKS A LITTLE TOO AMBITIOUS WITH
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WILL UNDERCUT IT BY A CATEGORY.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY CONTAINS NO GREAT SURPRISES...AND
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING EXTENDED PACKAGE. A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND 110W WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED BETWEEN 140W AND 150W THROUGH AT LEAST 11 APRIL. A SERIES
OF WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH POSITION AND SUBSEQUENTLY TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY 12-13 APRIL...THE MRF HAS BEEN
FAIRLY INSISTENT UPON DROPPING AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A CONSEQUENT RETROGRESSION OF
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS
EVOLUTION...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THE
POWERFUL WAVE WHICH WAS NEAR 50N/135W AT 18Z INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND EJECTING IT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG A TRAJECTORY SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE 00Z MRF IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SHOULD RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL RAISE POP PHRASEOLOGY
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES OF WAVES WILL RIPPLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
CANADIAN SPECTRAL SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION...MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE MRF...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENT ON ANY OF THE MODELS TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SO THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL BE DROPPED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 044/054 039/068 042 +40
GCK 041/056 036/070 040 +40
EHA 040/059 035/072 042 +20
LBL 045/057 040/070 044 +40
HYS 042/052 036/067 042 ++0
P28 050/062 042/072 046 +40

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/RUTHI