Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999

FORECAST QUANDRY FOR TODAY IS HIGH TEMPS AND HOW FAST STRATUS/FOG
BURNS OFF IN UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN POPS LATE TAFTN/TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHRTWV AND CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SEVERE.

STRATUS DVLP BEHIND EXITING MCS IN WRN OK UNDER ERLY/SERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW OF HIGH TDS. MOIST AXIS IN MID 70S POKING AHD OF MCS IN WRN OK
AND 60S INTO ERN COLORADO. NGM WAY OUT TO LUNCH IN PUSHING WARM
FRONT THRU CWA TDY WHILE ETA/AVN KEEP US NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN
COOLER REGIME AND UPSLOPE. PREFER COOLER FCST WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING PUSHED FARTHER INTO OK. WITH
UPSLOPE CONT TDY THIS SHLD TRAP A COOL AND SATURATED BNDRY LAYER
BELOW INVERSION. WE SHLD BE CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND
BREAK OUT SOME BY MID AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF SUN IN FAR SW
CORNER WHERE WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE IT AND UPSLOPE NOT AS
DEEP. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS TDY THE COOLER FAN GUID IS PREFERRED.
WILL ALSO KEEP GOING DRY FCST TDY WITH SINKING MOTION IN BACK OF
MCS AND LACK OF ANY SHRTWV. AGREE WITH SPC THOUGHTS OF CONVECTION
HOLDING BACK UNTIL EVENING OR LATE AFTN. MAY NEED A SMALL POP IN
FAR WEST TO COVER.

FOR TNGT ELEVATED SEVERE AGAIN PROBABLE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ALONG SOUTHERN TIER CWA. ALSO WINDS
STAY UPSLOPE WITH HIGH MSTR CONTENT SO STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. WILL GO WITH CURRENT FCST OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

THEN ON THURSDAY ANOTHER VORT LOBE GOES ACROSS IN AM AND WILL NEED
A 30 POP FOR MAINLY MORNING CONVECTION. AGAIN PREFER ETA/AVN SFC
FEATURES WITH CONT OF UPSLOPE BNDRY LAYER FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS RISE
A LITTLE ALLOWING UPSLOPE TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW. THIS SHLD ALLOW
FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN TDY WITH TEMPS INTO MID 80S. AROUND 90 TO
95 IN FAR SW.

THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVES THRU CWA AS
HIEGHT RISE AND H5 FLOW BECOMES SWRLY. AND ON FRIDAY H85 TEMPS
FCST BY AVN TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS WOULD YIELD
SFC TEMPS WILL ABOVE 100. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE THAT WARM
BECAUSE AVN TENDS TO BE A LITTLE AGRESSIVE AT WARMING H85 TEMPS
HOWEVER MANY AREAS MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR. STILL MAY BE A TSTM BUBBLE UP IN THE
HEAT WITH THE BEST MSTR IN THE EAST.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 080/065 085/066 100 133
GCK 080/065 085/065 100 133
EHA 088/065 094/065 105 -32
LBL 083/066 087/066 101 132
HYS 080/064 083/065 098 133
P28 083/069 087/070 100 133

.DDC...NONE.

KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-010600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
945 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG AND NORTH OF A HAYS TO
GARDEN CITY TO ELKHART LINE AFTER 10 AM...AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE GROUND TO MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...YOU MAY VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

MCCAMMON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-010600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
945 AM CDT WED JUN 30 1999

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG AND NORTH OF A HAYS TO
GARDEN CITY TO ELKHART LINE AFTER 10 AM...AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

DEEP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE GROUND TO MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...YOU MAY VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

MCCAMMON