Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 1999

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHC OF PCPN ALONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND THEN CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.

LEE TROF LOCATED ACROSS NW KANSAS AND EASTERN CO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WY AND
SOUTHERN SD. MOISTURE CONV HAS BE INCREASING ALONG LEE TROF AS S/W
MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST AHEAD OF S/W WHICH APPEARS ON
W/V LOOP. ALL MODELS SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL AND MOVES
IT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. 300 MB JET MAX ALSO PROGGED
MOVE INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE EVENING. BEST UVV ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF CWA DURING THE
EVENING. AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT, ALL MODELS MOVE A WEAKER VORT LOBE INTO CWA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN 500 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND W/V LOOP. ALTHOUGH
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
CWA BY THIS TIME WILL KEEP A MENTION OF 30 POPS GOING ACROSS THE
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO 50 POPS IN THE NORTH
GIVEN BETTER DYNAMICS HERE. OVER THE SE WILL GO 40 POPS TONIGHT AND
30 POPS TOMORROW SINCE BELIEVE FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY
MORNING.

CURRENTLY BELIEVE FROPA WILL BE AROUND 6Z IN THE NORTH AND 12Z NEAR
P28. WITH GOOD SFC GRADIENT AND +30 KT WNDS AT 850 WILL ALSO GO WITH
INCREASING WINDS AFTER FROPA AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE  DAY
ON SUNDAY. NGM/ETA BOTH BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z VIS ALSO SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS WITH LOW
CLOUDS EVIDENT JUST NORTH OF FRONT AHEAD OF NEXT S/W WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA SUNDAY. BEST PVA WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY SO IN ADDITION TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
MENTION SLT CHC FOR SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN SOME SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER AVN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY.

AS SFC TO 850 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS DRYER AIR SETTLES IN.
CLEARING CONDITIONS SUN PM SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK WELL INTO
THE 40S. WITH MORE SUN ON MONDAY AND 850 TEMPS HOLDING NEARLY
STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO WILL GO WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER BUT STILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM FAN.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE A COOL PERIOD UNTIL THE WEEKEND. MRF/CS SHOW GOOD SURFACE
RIDGING WITH STG MID LVL TROF IN NORTHERN PLAINS. CS A LITTLE MORE
COLDER AND SLOWER. WILL HEDGE TOWARD CANADIAN AND KEEP 70S GOING THRU
THURSDAY IN LINE WITH PREV FCST. LOWS MAINLY IN 40S. WARMUP
SCHEDULED BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH 80S RETURNING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC NB 058/069 044/071 045 310
GCK NB 056/068 043/071 044 310
EHA NB 055/068 042/070 042 310
LBL NB 060/069 044/071 046 310
HYS NB 056/068 041/070 043 520
P28 NB 064/073 047/075 047 430

.DDC...NONE.

RB/KRUSE