Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT WED AUG 4 1999

ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING S/W INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND POOL OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS POT FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND W/V LOOP INDICATING ON S/W MOVING SLOWLY NE
ACROSS NORTHERN UT/SW WY. MOISTURE POOL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CWA
WITH 850 AND 700 MB WND CONV PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THIS
SEEMS TO RELATE WELL WITH BEST CONV WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TODAY. UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST TONIGHT AS DOES WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THTA-E RIDGE IS ALSO IN PLACE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE PRESENT. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MORE STABLE AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAN HEAVIEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINDED TO THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF
CWA. AT 300 PM...CONVECTION JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE KS BOARDER
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST SO
AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH A FFA FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. ROUGHLY
FROM A LINE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO LAKIN. FURTHER EAST
WILL KEEP CHC GOING BUT BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME
ON THU AND THU PM.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS CWA AS A VORT LOBES MOVES INTO NE COLORADO AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN KS. POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER CWA WITH BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE. WITH THIS BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL CWA ON THURSDAY. FURTHER SW BELIEVE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DOMINATE SO WILL WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUDS AND CHC POPS GOING HERE.
TEMPS SHOULD NOT VARY MUCH FROM TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER. FWC APPEARS
TO A ALITTLE TO WARM SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE FAN NUMBERS ON
THUR. NIGHT TIME TEMPS LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ALL MODELS APPEAR TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR TO QUICKLY
AS SFC HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. AVN SHOWING
LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CO DURING THE DAY. STILL APPEARS
THAT DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF COOLER AIR BEING FURTHER WEST AND
CLOUD COVER WILL TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF THE FAN/FWC NUMBERS FOR
FRIDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF PCPN GOING ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TODAYS MRF IS LESS BULLISH ON A WEEKEND FROPA. ALSO LAST NIGHTS
CANADIAN MODEL VALID 0Z/09 SHOWS A LEESIDE TROF FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THIS
MORNINGS DISCUSSION...THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY VERY WELL
NOT BE STRONG AS WAS ADVERTISED FROM THE 0Z/08 RUN OF THE MRF.
AGAIN...TODAYS ENSEMBLES WERE NOT AVAILABLE...HOWEVER...YESTERDAYS
ENSEMBLES SHOWED THAT THE 0Z/08 MRF RUN MAY HAVE BEEN TOO AMPLIFIED
WITH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. UPSHOT
CONCERNING ALL OF THIS IS THAT THIS FORECAST WILL BE MORE COUCHED
IN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

GOOD COORD WITH GLD...PUB...ICT

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 066/080 066/085 066 564
GCK 065/080 065/085 065 564
EHA 064/080 064/086 066 753
LBL 066/080 066/085 066 753
HYS 063/077 065/082 067 366
P28 069/083 071/088 069 465

.DDC...FFA FOR 061-062-074>076-084>087. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEAD TO LAKIN.

RB/MCCAMMON