Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CHC OF PCPN AND HOW
QUICKLY COLD FRONT EXITS CWA.

LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING TO FALL ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM A LBL TO DDC
TO GBD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RELATED WELL WITH COLD FRONT LOCATION
AND BEST POOL OF MOISTURE AT 850 AND 700. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO
SUGGESTING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. RAIN
COOL AIR SHOULD AID ALLOWING SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ALL MODELS INDICATE AND WILL ALSO INHIBIT THE COLD FRONT
FROM MOVING BACK NORTH AS QUICKLY AS THE NGM/AVN SUGGEST.

TONIGHT EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON
W/V LOOP WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INSTAB SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN HERE AS WELL AS S/W PASSES SO WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW ACROSS TREGO AND
ELLIS COUNTY WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON FFA. HEAVIEST PCPN WAS
MAINLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OF THE COUNTY AND THIS AREA SHOULD
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MISS MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE HEAVY RAIN. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE BEST TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WILL GO CAT POPS. AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH WHERE FLOODING SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM.

COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER SE SECTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. AS A RESULT APPEARS FWC/FAN MAY
BE TO WARM AND WILL CUT BACK TEMPS AT CAT.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND LEE TROF DEVELOPING. SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF
LEE TROF SAT NIGHT SHOULD HELP BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO MOST OF THE
CWA. MAY EVEN HAVE FOG DEVELOPING BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHRA IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC BOUNDARY LOCATION. MORE SUN EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS START TO WARM. GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN AND SE
FLOW TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY BE AROUND 90.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE A GENERAL SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN MID LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SUNFLOWER STATE WITH SFC/850 LOW/TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THIS COMBO WILL GENERATE
AND PCPN.  RIGHT NOW...I/M LEADING TOWARD LOW TO NO CHANCES. MAINLY
DUE TO FCST 850 TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S C AND 700 TEMPS OF 15 TO 18 C
DURING THIS PERIOD HELPING TO GENERATE A GOOD CAP. ALSO...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO RATHER THAN THE
GULF...THUS GREATLY REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. I AM THINKING THAT THE NIGHT TIME MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
PCPN DUE TO THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH WHERE IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THEN THE
SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS
HAPPENING...AND ALSO THAT IF IT DID HAPPEN IT WOULD PROBABLY ONLY
AFFECT MY NORTHEAST COUNTIES...I/LL LEAVE THE FORECAST HIGH AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH/RIDGE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HELPING TO
DEVELOP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...AN 850 S/W IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CONUS DURING THIS TIME. THESE
FEATURES...DESPITE STILL A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CAP...I THINK CALL FOR
A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO RFM GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A
BIT COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RESULTING IN MORNING COLD POOLS IN THE AREA TO BURN THROUGH.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 065/085 068/090 070 831
GCK 065/080 065/090 068 432
EHA 062/085 065/092 068 521
LBL 062/085 065/092 069 521
HYS 065/083 065/090 070 553
P28 068/089 068/092 071 731

.DDC...NONE.

RB/SLEIGHTER