Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT MON SEP 6 1999

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SHOW ROTATION...SO MAY HAVE TO CUT
THIS A LITTLE SHORT.

NOT QUITE THE WASHOUT IT APPEARED IT WOULD BE TODAY...BUT RAIN IS
DEFINITELY ON THE WAY.  DRY SLOT HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PA THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT DENNIS REMNANTS TAPPING INTO A DEEP MOIST
TONGUE EXTENDING FROM S PA TO THE CAROLINA COAST.  THIS MOIST TONGUE
WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL PA TONIGHT BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
MOST.

WITH THE EFFICIENCY OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS FOR PRODUCING RAIN...ADDED
TO UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...THE REGION COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
REACH FFG VALUES (2-4 IN 3 HOURS).  WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  FEEL THERE IS
REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO WRAP WESTWARD AROUND THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION (LIKE CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST) AS REMNANTS DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST...SO WILL INCLUDE ALL NORTHERN COUNTIES NOW AS WELL.

SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE LATE TOMORROW MORNING...
AIDED BY A PUSH FROM A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. CATEGORICAL
RAIN FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHILE TAPERING TO SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS WHETHER TO EXTEND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN THE NE TOMORROW.

TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSES PA TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SCRAPE UP A 30 POP FOR THOSE PERIODS...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLOSE TO FAN/FWC.

.CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

RXR