Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EST SAT FEB 12 1999

...ADVISORIES ARE ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK...

S/W NO LONGER ENHANCING PCPN OV FA...AS INFLUENCE IS WELL TO THE NE.
ONLY MOTTLED/STREETED SHRA & CLDS OV CNTL/SE PA AND LES LEFT UP IN
THE NW. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTS TO GIVE LAURELS -SN. BUT THE TIME FOR
SIGGY ACCUMS IS LIKELY OV FOR ALL BUT WARREN CNTY.

BFD MODEL SOUNDING AND BUFKIT HOURLY POINT DATA ALL POINT TO A
LOWERING OF THE INVERSION HEIGHT (USUALLY A KILLER TO LES
CONVECTION) TO BLO 2KFT BY 08Z. 12Z MM5 RUN FM KBUF HAS
LES-SUPPORTING OMEGAS AND RH MORE TO OUR E AND S THAN 00Z RUN DID.
THANKS FOR THE DATA BUF THIS SOLN WL MAKE THE DECISION TO DROP THE
LES ADV FOR THE NW MUCH EASIER. ACCORDING TO MM5 PROGS...BY 9
PM...BULK OF THE SN SHUD BE DONE IN WARREN COUNTY. SHSN WL STILL
LAST PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT BY 08Z THAT SHUD EVEN DIMINISH TO
FLURRIES.  ADDITIONAL SF AMNTS THERE SHUD NOT GO TO ADV CRIT FOR LES
(4-5 IN 12 HRS) FOR THIS NEXT PD. ERGO...LET THE LES ADV GO DOWN
W/ISSUANCE OF THIS PKG.

FOR LAURELS...SUPPORT WL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN IN THE NW...AS
WNDS WL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOISTURE DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS WINDS DO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...THE WORRY FOR A WND CHL ADVS
GOES AWAY. W/MIN XPCTD TO BE IN UPPER SINGLES AND WINDS 10 TO
20...THAT WOULD ONLY SCRAPE THE MAGIC -20F NUMBER FOR A FEW HOURS.
WL NOT ISSUE. EVEN THO TEMPS WL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NRN
MTNS...ESP /SHELTERED VALLEYS/...THEY SHUDN/T HV THE WIND THE
LAURELS WL.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT W/OVERALL PICTURE...AS ETA AND NGM
OPPOSITE ON HOW DEEP THE 5H LOW GETS AS IT MOVES OV CAPE COD AND OUT
INTO THE ATL. AVN RIDING THE MIDDLE GROUND...AND THAT SEEMS THE
PLACE TO STAND ATTM. PATTERN WL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND WAA WL TAKE US
BACK TO NORMALS OR BETTER IN ONLY A DAY OR TWO. WL USE ETA THINKING
FOR FIRST PD AS IT IS MORE MOIST AND IS HANDLING LES AND UPSLOPE FLO
BETTER. WL FOLLOW ALONG W/AVN THEREAFTER.

ONTO THE NEXT FCST PD...DAY WL BE MS AT THE START FOR A GOOD DEAL OF
THE FA. XCPTN WL BE IN THE N AND NW WHERE CYCLONIC FLO AND HIGHER
LLVL RH REMAIN LONGER. BY AFTN THERE SHUD BE SUN IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL...DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF WAA HIGH CLDS IN THE AFTN OV PA. THAT
WAA WL WARM THE 8H TEMPS FM CURR -12C TO -18C READINGS TO CLOSER TO
-8C TO -4C BY SUN AFTN. NOT A TERRIBLE VALENTINE/S DAY AT ALL...JUST
COOLER THAN NORMS. SUNSHINE SHUD HELP. MONDAY NOT A BAD START TO THE
WEEK EITHER...AS TEMPS GET BACK ABV CLIMO UNDER P/MS SKIES.

XTNDD...PATTERN SEEMING TO AMPLIFY & SLOW W/LAST RUN...WL GO AWAY FM
00Z MRF AND NOT MENTION PCPN UNTIL LATE TUE AND ELY WED. WED CUD
THROW ANOTHER QUICK CHG FM RA TO SN AT US...AS SFC LOW JUMPS TO THE
SOUTH OF US ALONG THE COAST AGAIN. THU WL BE NR CLIMO ON TEMPS AND
CONTAIN SOME SHSN.

.CTP...NONE.

DANGELO

PAZ028-035-036-050>053-056>059-063>066-122115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 AM EST FRI FEB 12 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR...STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO
THE EAST...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATING DAMAGING GUSTS OVER 55
MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
NATIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION VIA CABLE TELEVISION OR COMMERCIAL
RADIO...FOR LATER STATEMENTS...NOWCASTS...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

.END/ FITZGERALD

FURTHER WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED VIA THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).