Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

MOST OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN A CDFNT APPROACHING SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST...AND TROPICAL DEW PTS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF MID-LVL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AROUND A UPPER TROUGH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE TROPICAL AIR FROM MD AND
DELAWARE SOUTH THROUGH VIRGINIA. CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE MOVING TO THE
NNW IN THIS AREA INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND SAT LOOPS ALSO INDICATE GOOD HEATING GOING
ON WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE PA.
ETA/RUC/NGM AND AVN ALL INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA AS THE STRONGEST MID-LVL SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BEND AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE CONVECTION
ALONG THE CDFNT IN WESTERN PA GRADUALLY DIES OUT AS ALL OF THE
ACTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQUAD OF AN UPPER WIND MAX.
MEANWHILE THE MM5 SHOWS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF PA TONIGHT.

WIND FIELDS OVER SE PA ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR SVR WX WITH 850
WINDS PROGGED AT 15 KTS ACROSS SE PA AND 500 MB WINDS PROGGED AT 30
KTS. HOWEVER WITH FORECAST LIS TO AROUND -8 CANT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED SVR STORMS. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES WITH PWATS PROGGED TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES THIS EVENING. 3 HR FFG GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY OVER 3 INCHES...
EXCEPT 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE FLOODED BY DENNIS. HPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO FLOODING EXPECTED. FWC POPS ARE VERY LOW WITH JUST
HI CHC POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND LOW CHC POPS FOR THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES. BASED ON ALL OF THIS WILL HOLD OFF ON A FFG WATCH FOR THE
LWR AND MID-SUSQ BUT THAT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
TRAINING STORMS TNGT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...HI CHC CENTRAL AND LIKELY SE.

DRY AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WHILE ALL OF THE MODELS
SHOW A SFC WAVE MOVING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NORTH TO NEW
ENGLAND. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AN AM SHOWER IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY
OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY AND LESS HUMID. SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.CTP...NONE.

MSE

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-100157-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBANIZED
AREAS WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR OVER AN HOUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-100157-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR
HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBANIZED
AREAS WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR OVER AN HOUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-100158-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS WHERE STORMS
PERSIST FOR OVER AN HOUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)

PAZ028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-100158-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID-SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS WHERE STORMS
PERSIST FOR OVER AN HOUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-100210-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVNAIA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-100210-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 PM EDT THU SEP 9 1999

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVNAIA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ON TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

.END/ MSE

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE STATE COLLEGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB-SITE AT:  HTTP://BOOKEND.MET.PSU.EDU
(ALL LOWER CASE)