Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1999

Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS State College, PA

September 6, 19994 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Sep 6, 1999, 9:07 PM EDT for 4 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued
Sep 6, 1999, 9:07 PM EDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired
Sep 7, 1999, 12:00 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Area
Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

Counties Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Perry County, PA, York County, PA

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 1999-09-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 35 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 1999-09-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 140 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
35 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
617 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
TTAA00 KCTP 070110
FFWCTP
PAC041-043-099-133-070400-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
907 PM EDT MON SEP 6 1999

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YORK COUNTY.
  PERRY COUNTY.
  DAUPHIN COUNTY.
  CUMBERLAND COUNTY.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

* AT 906 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT STRETCHED FROM
  MILLERSBURG DOWN TO YORK. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE
  NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER
  THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE 
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA. THE SMALLER CREEKS AND 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER WILL FILL TO CAPACITY QUICKLY. 
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE CITY OF HARRISBURG 
CAN ALSO EXPECT UNDERPASSES AND STREETS TO FILL WITH WATER.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS` THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

.END/DANGELO

LAT...LON 3998 7695 3996 7675 4053 7665 4060 7710

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 6, 8:10 PM EDT, 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 8:10 PM EDT, 57 minutes before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 PM EDT MON SEP 6 1999

WELL IT TOOK FOREVER FOR DENNIS TO GET HERE..BUT IT IS HERE AND THE
RAIN IS FALLING. WE HAD A BEAUTIFUL WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF
RAIN MOVE THROUGH AROUND 5 PM WITH A BLINDING DOWNPOUR AND ABOUT .5
OF RAIN IN 5 MINUTES. LOTS OF REPORTS OF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS...BUT
NO REAL FLOODING TO SPEAK OF...YET. SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
ARE CLOSE TO BANKFULL...BUT LARGER ONES ARENT EVEN CLOSE.

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF DENNIS IS HARD TO FIND AT 21Z...BUT IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EKN AND CHO. THE UPPER SYSTEM IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE AS EVIDENCED BY THE SPIRALING RAIN SHIELD AND THE MASS
FIELDS ON THE MODEL PROGS. ETA MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 35-45KT POINTED UP FROM THE SSE...CONTINUING INTO THE WEE
HOURS AND FINALLY PULLING OFF EARLY TUES.

2 CONCERNS FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREATS WILL BE. FIRST IS
ALONG THE DEEP SLY FEED WHICH IS TAKING AIM AT THE CTRL AND ERN
PARTS OF MY CWA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW SHOWERS FEEDING
NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP SLY FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTING TO ABOUT THE BAHAMAS.
MODEL PRECIP WATERS TOP 2 INCHES SO THE JUICE IS NOT LACKING.

OTHER AREA IS OVER NWRN PA WHERE RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST DEFORMATION
ZONE IS FORMING. THIS COMBINED WITH A BAND WHICH HAS BEEN INCHING
EAST THRU ERN OHIO CUD MAKE FOR PROBLEMS THERE. THIS AREA TOOK A
GOOD SLUG OF RAIN LAST WEEK WHICH CAUSED MAJOR FLASH FLOODING.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TUES MORNING TO DEAL WITH
THE RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL SURGE OF RW/TRW WAS HANDLED FAIRLY
WELL BY THE RADAR PRECIP ALGORITHM...WE ARE IN TROPICAL Z/R MODE.
NOW HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS ARE WARM...IN THE MID -20S...WITH RADAR
TOPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S. THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC
WARM RAIN/LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EVENT...WHICH MEANS THE RADAR WILL
START TO GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE PRECIP.

.CTP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LA CORTE

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 6, 11:37 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming, Snyder, Union3 hr
Sep 6, 11:47 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, York3 hr
Sep 6, 11:47 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPPerry3 hr
Sep 7, 2:06 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPNorthumberland3 hr
Sep 7, 2:25 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPPerry, Snyder, Union4 hr
Sep 7, 2:25 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPDauphin, York4 hr
Sep 7, 2:25 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming4 hr
Sep 7, 3:45 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPTioga2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1999Every flash flood warning in 1999

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.