Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

LINE OF TSRA HV MADE IT ACRS CNTRL GA AND NOW CAN BE SEEN ENTERING
WRN PTNS OF KCLX CVRG AREA. IN ADDITION SCT SHRA HV BEEN MVG NWD
OFF THE CSTL WATERS AND INTO CSTL GA AND INLAND SC CNTYS. CLDS ARE
PLENTIFUL ACRS MOST OF THE AREA ALTHO THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN N AND E OF KNBC WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S. HOWEVER APRS THAT CLDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO FILL IN
AS MOISTURE CONTS TO INCS. 12Z KCHS SNDG MODIFIED FOR CRNT CONDS
SHOWS ARND 1600 CAPE W/JUST A WEAK CAP. HOWEVER THIS PROFILE SHOULD
CONT TO UNDERGO A BIG CHANGE AND SUSPECT IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WETTER BY 00Z.

IF CLDS CONT FILL IN AND LIMIT INSOLATION FOR MOST THE AFTN BELIEVE
THAT SVR THREAT WL BE MINIMAL WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES.
ALTHO IF DESTABILIZATION CAN CONT TO OCCUR THRU THE DAY THEN SOME OF
THESE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BECOME INTERESTING.

AS FAR AS THE ZONES GO LOOKS LIKE CAT POPS FOR INLAND GA CNTYS SHLD
WORK FINE AS LINE OUT W SHLD MV INTO THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN. AND CHC
POPS FOR KCHS VCNTY MAY WORK AS WELL. HOWEVER IN BETWEEN /INCLUDING
KNBC AND KSAV/ LIKELY POPS MAY BE A BETTER CHOICE FOR THIS AFTN. FOR
TEMPS MAY NEED A LARGE RANGE FM CSTL TO INLAND SCTNS OF CHS ZONE
W/TEMPS APRCHG 80 AT KCHS BUT ONLY 70 DOWNTOWN. FURTHER S AND W CLD
CVR MAY LIMIT MAXES TO MID 70S. WINDS HV BCM GUSTY ESPC WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN SOME SUNSHINE. LAKE WIND ADVSY FOR MOULTRIE LOOKS GOOD BUT
CAUTION ON AREA LAKES IN GA MAY BE MARGINAL W/MIXING LIMITED.

CWF...CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK AND XPCT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHNGS OF PACKAGE. S/SE FLOW WL CONT TO INCR THRU THE DAY

.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE TO SAVANNAH AND CHS HARBOR.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA.

AMZ330-335-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>050-241100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 PM EST SAT JAN 23 1999

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OUT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO INLAND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS LEADING EDGE.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BRINGING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA. AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WITH SOME SPOTS RECEIVING
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND THUS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY ALONG THE LEADING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND ANY THAT OCCURS MAY APPROACH THE SIZE OF A
DIME.

PEOPLE ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THROUGH TONIGHT. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.