Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
244 PM EDT SAT APR 24 1999

LOW CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN THE COAST AND CEILING AT NBC IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DROPPING. FRONT LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ALONG THE
SAV RIVER WITH IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
BEHIND THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS LOOKS TO BE IMPROVING
IN THE GA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE.

FOR TONIGHT CAA NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH ONSHORE FLOW SO LOWS TONIGHT MAY NOT DIP MUCH
INTO THE 50S AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE
BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE GA COUNTIES AS FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY S STABILIZING THE ATM. BIG QUES IS HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY S AND HOW UNSTABLE SE GA AIRMASS CAN GET...GIVEN DRAMATIC
HEATING THAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY...BEFORE A VORT MAX DROPS SE ACROSS
GA EARLY THIS EVENING. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS POTENTIAL TO GO
SEVERE.

FOR EARLY SUN A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE IN SE GA WITH OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR SUN NIGHT THINK SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW LVL
CLOUDS LINGERING. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MON
ALONG WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARMING TREND. THE ETA HINTS AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROF ON MON BUT DO NOT LIKE THIS IDEA AS
THINK HIGH PRES WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED JUST OFF THE COAST. A DRY
FCST EXPECTED MON WITH BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS W OF AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT SYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER ON TUE.

CWF...CDFNT MOVING INTO GA WATERS ATTM WILL CONT SWD TO ALG THE
FLA/GA BDR BFR BECMG STNRY LT TNGT OR SUN. LGT WINDS RPTD AT GRAYS
REEF OFF THE SE GA CST EARLY THIS AFTN...SO CDFNT APRS TO BE RIGHT
ON THE DOORSTEP. WINDS HAVE REACHED SCA CRITERIA ACRS SC WATERS
WITH 20-25 KT WINDS RPTD ALG CST...CHS HARBOR...AND 40 MILE EDISTO
BUOY. SEAS SHUD BLD TO SCA CRITERIA...6-7 FT...WITH MDT-STG NELY
FLOW TO CONT THRU TNGT. DONT ANTICIPATE NEED TO GO SCA FOR GA CST...
BUT WILL MENTION SCEC AS ANTICIPATE NE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AND SEAS BLDG TO 4-6 FT EITHER BY LT AFTN OR THIS EVE. WINDS AND
SEAS DMNSH BY SUN AFTN.

PRELIM NUMBERS
CHS EB 063/072 058/080 63 181100
SAV EB 062/074 058/082 62 182200
CHL EB 066/070 064/075 66 181100
NBC EB 063/073 058/080 63 182100

.CHS...
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH.
GA...NONE.

SLF/JAC