Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
320 PM EDT THU APR 8 1999

CONTINUE TO WATCH SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THERE IS GOING TO BE
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE CUMULUS ARE A LITTLE MORE ENHANCED IN GEORGIA SECTIONS AND THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE NEEDED IN PART OF THE AREA. AFTER THAT
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE RATHER LOW.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE. SO WHILE A FEW DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH A GOOD 15 TO 25 MPH
AND PERHAPS GETTING EVEN HIGHER INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERION. IT
ALMOST LOOKS HOT AND DUSTY. BUT ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE ETA
SHOW THAT THE WARMEST LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES PASS BY THE AREA
IN THE MORNING. SO FULL HEAT POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN MAY NOT BE
REACHED. THUS AM HESITANT TO GO ABOVE TODAYS READINGS. BUT WITH
STRONG GRADIENT WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE BEACHES.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE EVEN WARMER ON SATURDAY
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME.

FOR MARINE AREA WINDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE
DAY. BUT AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND FROM EARLIER FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
CHS 67/87 67/85 1111
SAV 67/87 67/86 2111
CHL 68/83 68/82 1111
NBC 68/86 68/84 2111

.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.