Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 1999

WK SFC TROF STILL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS FEATURE TO CHG MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF PDS WITH WK FRONT
CURRENTLY TOUCHING N GA WASHING OUT THROUGH WED. MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM 36-48 TIMEFRAME. AVN DEVELOPING MORE
PRONOUNCED SFC/LLVL LOW NR THE GA/FL AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. NOT
SOLD ON THIS TO THAT EXTENT. ETA IS WEAKER. LIKE A MIX OF NGM AND
ETA THROUGHOUT THE PD. UPR LEVEL VORT MAX REMAINS WELL TO
THE N. ENUF ENERGY AND UVV REACHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO CONT A
SLGT CHC/CHC POPS. CURRENT ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE CHS CWA SHOULD
PUSH A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP KICK OFF SOME STORMS THRU MOST
OF FIRST PD. CHC POPS WILL CONT THROUGH WED...AND ALTHOUGH LINGERING
ISOLD TSTM POSS 3RD PD...WILL NOT MENTION IN ZONES. EXPECT 4TH PD
ACTIVITY AGAIN AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW.

IN THE EXTENDD...FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON FRI.
ATTIM WILL CARRY CHC POP EARLY ALONG THE COAST FRI...DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD.

FAN AND FWC TEMPS ARE SURPRISINGLY VERY CLOSE THRU THU. DO NOT SEE A
REASON TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THEM.

CWF: FCST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOW FROM A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU.
SPEEDS WILL MAINLY AVERAGE 10 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE TRICKY PART
OF FCST IS ON THU WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE AT 12Z. POSITION
OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THU WILL DICTATE 4TH PERIOD DIRECTIONS.
WILL LEAN AGAINST THE TROF POSITION OF AVN AND COMPROMISE A SOLN FROM
AN EXTRAPOLATED NGM/ETA BLEND.

CHS BB 074/090 073/089 070 252313
CHL BB H080/089 079/087 075 252313
NBC BB 075/091 074/089 071 252313
SAV BB 074/090 072/089 070 252313

.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

MJR/RVT