Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 1999

POTENTIALLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS HEAT FILLED SUMMER WILL COME
SATURDAY AS 22 C H8 AIR IS POISED TO WORK INTO THE STATE. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 C H8 AIR UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH 18Z SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEADING TO APPARANT HIGH VALUES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 100.

GUIDELINES PROHIBIT THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGH HEAT WATCHES OR
ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THIS EVENT.
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
STEPS.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY INCLUDE 93 IN THE BUF AND 98 IN
ROCHESTER. WE SHOULD APPROACH THESE VALUES AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
SOME OF THE ZONES. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE FOR BUF IS THAT A SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF LK ERI SHOULD KEEP DOWNTOWN BUF AND ITS IMMEDIATE NRN AND
WRN SUBURBS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. THANK GOODNESS FOR MOTHER NATURES
AIR CONDITIONER.

A COOL FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION LATE SATURDAY...WITH HOURLY PROFILE
INFO SHOWING CAPES TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE STRONGEST HEATING OF THE
DAY. WARM MID-LEVELS MAY CAP ANY REAL CONVECTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE
CHC POPS FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN COME THOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH -TSRA ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE POSING THE GREATEST THREAT.

COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TO PROVIDxE US WITH A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY SUNDAY.

WILL AIM ABOVE FWC TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...USING 18Z OHIO
VALLEY/MID WEST SFC TEMPS AND T1 FRH TEMPS FOR TEMP FORECASTS.

.BUF...NONE

RSH

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-310400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RECORD HEAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 1999

...VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER COULD POSE A HEALTH THREAT SATURDAY...

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD TO OPPRESSIVE LEVELS SATURDAY AS THE
MERCURY WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE WHERE A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID AIR WILL
PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 105 FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 100 EXPECTED FOR SITES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE 93 IN BUFFALO...98 IN
ROCHESTER AND 96 FOR SYRACUSE.

THE BODY'S ABILITY TO COOL ITSELF IS RESTRICTED WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS
HIGH. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE SUN COULD RESULT IN HEAT CRAMPS OR
HEAT EXHAUSTION. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME
SATURDAY...REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF LIQUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND THOSE THAT ARE HOMEBOUND AND REMEMBER TO
CHECK ON YOUR PETS AS WELL. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS INSIDE YOUR
VEHICLE UNATTENDED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

RSH