Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 1999

EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FROM LAST NIGHTS DATA
SHOWS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO MOVING EAST TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS STRONGEST OVER
CANADA...BUT STILL DEALING WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR OUR
AREA.  MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AT 700/500 MB.  MAIN SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL BACK TO
THE WEST AND WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 90
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...GENERATING CAPE VALUES TO
2000 J/KG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAINS
CAPPED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +11/+12C...BUT OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE CAP AND SOME COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THUS GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR...THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS REAL GOOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY
COVERED AND WOULD EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE CONVECTION
TO POSSIBLY WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  THIS WILL BE
DISCUSSED WITH SPC THIS MORNING WHICH HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THIS
AREA FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE BAND
OF CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS ORIGINS WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WELL SINCE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE MOVING AS FAST AS
THE MCS SYSTEMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV BY 1000 AM

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.

NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-062100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.  THIS WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT
AND AFFECTS THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.  FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK...ST LAWRENCE...FRANKLIN...CLINTON AND ESSEX
COUNTIES.  IN VERMONT THE WATCH COVERS THE AREA FROM RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

EVENSON

NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-062100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.  THIS WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT
AND AFFECTS THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.  FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK...ST LAWRENCE...FRANKLIN...CLINTON AND ESSEX
COUNTIES.  IN VERMONT THE WATCH COVERS THE AREA FROM RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

EVENSON

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