Tornado Warning 52, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 AM MDT TUE AUG 17 1999

...MONSOONAL FLOW STRENGTHENS...

STLT WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTS TO SHW MOIST MONSOONAL FLO ALF FM MEX
SWEEPING NWD ACRS CNTRL RCKYS.  GUD SHT WV IN FLO ALF WITH ASSOCD
PVA AND Q-G FORCING WILL ENHANCE TSTM DVLPMNT ACRS AREA THIS AFTN
AND EVE.  BOTH NGM AND ETA AGREE ON MOVEMENT OF SHT WV AND INCRSD
MSTR ACRS AREA TDA AND TNGT.  NGM AND ETA UPR AIR SOUNDINGS FCST
CAPES BTWN 500 AND 1200J/KG ACRS AREA WITH PRECIPITIBLE WATERS OF
ARND AN INCH WHICH IS MORE THAN 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  WUD ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WERE H5 STEERING WNDS NOT FCST IN 25 TO 30 KT
RANGE AND IF SOILS WERE SATURATED FROM PAST RAINS.  GUD SHEAR ALF
MAY PRODUCE ONE OR TWO SVR TSTMS...BUT WILL EMPHASIZE THRT OF HVY
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES AN HOUR.  WILL WRITE SPECL WX
STMNT ON THIS TOPIC.  ON WED NGM AND ETA DIFFER GREATLY ON AMT OF
DRYING BEHND STG SHT WV.  NGM EVEN INCREASES MSTR WHILE ETA TENDS
TO DRY AMS.  FCST CAPES RMN HIGH BUT THINK SUM STBLTY SHUD OCCUR.
WILL TREND TO CUT POPS IN HALF ATTM.  WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMP GDNC
TDA DUE TO CLDNS AND MAKE WED A LTL WRMR DUE TO MORE SUN.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO XTNDD FCST ATTM.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-180600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1120 AM MDT TUE AUG 17 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...THE FLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE
STATE SINCE YESTERDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING.  WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT BROUGHT SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...BUT MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS....EAST OF A LINE BETWEEN
FORT MORGAN AND LIMON.  THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED
FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING AND EAST OF THE FORT
MORGAN TO LIMON LINE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
MAY BE UP TO ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES.  ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES IN 45
MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOME FLOODING OF FIELDS...SMALL STREAMS
AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES OR CREEKBEDS MAY OCCUR IN WASHINGTON...
LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...MORE THAN ONE INCH IN* 30 MINUTES OR LESS...SHOULD BE
RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DANKERS