Tornado Warning 47, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
302 AM MDT WED AUG 04 1999

FLOW OF MONSOON MSTR WL CONT OVR RGN TODAY THRU THURSDAY.  MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW WK DISTURBANCES IMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY TRACK ACRS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.  OF COURSE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER
THIS FEATURES ARE REAL OR FICTIONAL.  FOR TODAY CLD CVR WL BE
EXTENSIVE WHICH MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF AFTN HTG.  HOWEVER FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IF TEMPS CAN REACH THE MID 70S THEN CAP WL BE BKN AND
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DVLP.  WITH WK WND FIELDS ALOFT STORMS THAT
DO DVLP WL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.  STRMS
COULD DVLP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MAIN FOCUS MAY OCCUR OVR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG PALMER DIVIDE IF ENOUGH HTG OCCURS.  ALSO
IF DENVER CYCLONE DVLPS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG
CONVERGENCE ZN.

FOR TONIGHT SELY LOW LVL FLOW IS FCST OVR MUCH OF RGN UP TO 700 MB
AND WITH ABUNDANT MSTR OVR RGN COULD SEE SHRA CONT MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ALONG AND NR THE FOOTHILLS FAVORED BY SELY WNDS.  BOTH NGM AND
MESO-ETA SHOW 15-20 KT SELY WNDS AT 700 MB OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL
ENVIORNMENT APPEARS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WRM CORE PRECIPITATION
PROCESS VS COLD CORE REGIME.  THUS COULD SEE SOME LOW TOP CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NR THE FOOTHILLS FAVORED BY SELY WNDS.

ON THU SEE LITTLE CHG TO OVERALL PTRN AS ABUNDANT MONSOON MSTR WL
CONT.  ONCE AGAIN AFTN TEMPS WL HAVE TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP.  FCST SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST ADIABATIC ON THU
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCRG TO 1.3 INCHES.  THUS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WL BE PSBL ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO INCR WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME MOVEMENT OF THE STRMS.

IN EXTENDED PD LATEST MRF SHOWS LESS MSTR OVR THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD
LIMIT AMOUNT OF AFTN CONVECTION BUT FOR NOW WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS
EXTENDED AS MRF MAY DRY THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY.   KLEYLA

.DEN...NONE

COZ030-032>050-050600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT WED AUG 4 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.  AT THIS TIME...THE
HIGHEST THREAT AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST OVER LARIMER COUNTY...AS
WELL AS DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER ANY REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...ONE INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR...SHOULD BE RELAYED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BARJENBRUCH

COZ030-032>050-050600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1030 AM MDT WED AUG 4 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO TONIGHT AS A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.  AT THIS TIME...THE
HIGHEST THREAT AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN EXIST OVER LARIMER COUNTY...AS
WELL AS DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER ANY REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...ONE INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR...SHOULD BE RELAYED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BARJENBRUCH

COZ043-041850-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1239 PM MDT WED AUG 4 1999

...BRIEF TORNADOES REPORTED BY LASALLE AND KERSEY...

AT 1236 PM MDT...THE WELD COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED THAT FUNNEL CLOUDS
HAD BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE GROUND NEAR THE TOWNS OF LASALLE AND KERSEY
IN CENTRAL WELD COUNTY.  THEY WERE MOVING SLOWLY WEST.

THESE TORNADOES WILL BE BRIEF...BUT IF ONE APPROACHES YOUR AREA...
MOVE TO A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

BARJENBRUCH

COZ043-041850-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1239 PM MDT WED AUG 4 1999

...BRIEF TORNADOES REPORTED BY LASALLE AND KERSEY...

AT 1236 PM MDT...THE WELD COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED THAT FUNNEL CLOUDS
HAD BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE GROUND NEAR THE TOWNS OF LASALLE AND KERSEY
IN CENTRAL WELD COUNTY.  THEY WERE MOVING SLOWLY WEST.

THESE TORNADOES WILL BE BRIEF...BUT IF ONE APPROACHES YOUR AREA...
MOVE TO A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

BARJENBRUCH