Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 1999

AREA OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME STORMS FIRING OVER PARK COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DENVER METRO AREA.  EXPECT THE AREA OF
SHOWERS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.  SOME HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS
LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN DUE TO CAA IN MID LEVELS...BUT FEEL
WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.  NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWED UPSLOPE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...BUT THIS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS SURGE FROM WYOMING AND NEBRASKA TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO PLAINS AROUND 03Z AND INCREASE UPSLOPE.

COLD TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.  GOOD
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH...AS NOTED BY
DIV-Q AND GRIDDED MOISTURE FIELDS.  FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZERO BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 6500 FEET.  THUS
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A GOOD BET MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WITH A MIXTURE AS LOW AS 6000 FEET.  ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
TRICKY...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE FOUND ALONG FOOTHILLS.
WILL START WITH THE CURRENT 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS FOR MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ZONE 41..THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
ZONES 38..39..40 AND PORTIONS OF 42.  ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
ADD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TIME PROGRESSES.
ALL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NGM...LOOK OVERZEALOUS IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND ALL SUGGEST MAJOR SHOVELING.  NICE THOUGHT FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY.

TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 12Z...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE SOME SHOWERS
IN THE AM.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS RIDGE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE.  DECENT WAA EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN
MID LEVELS...SO WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.  NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH STATE BY END OF WEEK.  STILL THE WARMUP
CONTINUES... BUT AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH TIME AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL.  SO THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN FORECAST.

LESZCYNSKI

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-170600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
420 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LINCOLN
AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 8PM THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...AND WILL BE HEADING
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.  LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE
5000 FEET.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION.

LESZCYNSKI

COZ030-032>050-170600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
420 PM MDT SUN MAY 16 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LINCOLN
AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT 8PM THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...AND WILL BE HEADING
INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.  LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE
5000 FEET.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION.

LESZCYNSKI