Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
200 PM MDT THU JUN 10 1999

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND LIFT
WITH APPROACHING STORMS TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT
THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF AS
ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVES EAST IN MEAN FLOW.  CAPES OF 1200-2000 J/KG
AND ENOUGH SHEAR IN MID LEVELS FOR A FEW SEVERE CELLS.  RISK OF
TORNADOES IS LOW GIVEN POOR SHEAR PROFILE IN LOWER LEVELS ALTHOUGH
CANT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO LANDSPOUTS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES/
INTERACTIONS.

AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW.  MODELS ALL INDICATE ANOTHER PUSH OF COOL AIR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  QUESTION FOR TOMORROW IS HOW STABLE WILL
IT REMAIN GIVEN STRATUS AND PUSH OF COOL AIR.  AS PER TODAY...
HIGHEST POPS AND CHANCE OF SEVERE IN/NEAR FOOTHILLS WITH ANY
CONVECTION HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE FRI AFTN/NIGHT FOR THE NE CORNER.
SHEAR IS WEAKER THOUGH SO WOULD NOT EXPECT AS MANY SEVERE CELLS.

SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
BUT LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING THROUGH TUESDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...NONE.

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COZ030-032>050-110600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
330 PM MDT THU JUN 10 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MOVED OFF THE FOOTHILLS.  THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS THIS EVENING.  PRIMARILY...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

BARJENBRUCH