Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
245 PM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

VIGOROUS UPR SHORT WAVE PASSING FM NRN MTNS ONTO THE NE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME...KICKING OFF A MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION OVR LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTY.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW ADDL CLDNS AND SHOWERS OVR NW
CO...BUT SFC OBS OVR CENTRAL MTNS INDICATE DRIER AIR AND GUSTY SW
WNDS HEADING TOWARDS THE CWA.  AMS ON THE ERN PLAINS HAS NOT WARMED
UP DUE TO THE CLD COVER...BUT CLOSER TO THE FTHLS TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  WIND FIELD SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL
DEVELOPED DENVER CYCLONE WHICH WL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION TO THE N AND NE OF DENVER.  THE RESULTING ROUND OF
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD RATHER QUICKLY SINCE IT WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE PASSING UPR TROF.  AFTER THE TROF MOVES OVRHD...THINGS
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUBSIDENT AND CLEAR THINGS OUT.

CONTG SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHUD BRING DRYING TO THE STATE ON TUE...AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CLEAR SKIES OVR AZ TODAY.  MODEL RH FIELDS CONT DRY
INTO WED...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTG.  AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTS...LOW LVL MSTR WL GRADLY RETURN...WITH INCRSG CHANCES FOR AFTN
AND EVENING T-STORM ACTVTY.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN
THREATS OF STRONG STORMS WL BE HIGHEST SO WL STICK WITH LOW POPS
THRU WED.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPR TROF DVLPG OVR SWRN U.S. WL TURN FLOW
OVR THE STATE MORE TO THE S.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF
DIURNAL T-STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY COULD BECOME MORE SLOW MOVING WITH
TRAIN ECHO CHARACTERISTICS...AND INCRSD POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINS.  WL
WORRY ABOUT THESE SORT OF THINGS LATER IN THE WEEK.

KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-010600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COLORADO
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALL OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

COZ030-032>050-010600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF A FEW SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN FOOTHILLS BY MIDDAY AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COLORADO
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALL OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

COZ046-312030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
205 PM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

...TORNADO REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC IN SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 203PM ELBERT COUNTY DISPATCH RECEIVED A TORNADO REPORT ONE HALF
MILE SOUTH OF ELBERT IN ELBERT COUNTY.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A GUST FRONT IN THE AREA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.  WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP ALONG GUST
FRONTS.  TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

RTG

COZ046-312030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
205 PM MDT MON MAY 31 1999

...TORNADO REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC IN SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 203PM ELBERT COUNTY DISPATCH RECEIVED A TORNADO REPORT ONE HALF
MILE SOUTH OF ELBERT IN ELBERT COUNTY.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A GUST FRONT IN THE AREA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.  WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP ALONG GUST
FRONTS.  TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

RTG