Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
315 PM MDT WED SEP 1 1999

NORTHEAST AREA UNDER GUN THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS.  LATEST PLATTEVILLE PROFILER INDICATING SHEAR
BECOMING IMPRESSIVE AND CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 JOULES
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING OFF FOOTHILLS INTO THE FAVORABLE AIRMASS.  SEVERE BOX ALREADY
OUT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  LATEST RUC KEEPS SURFACE FRONT
NORTH OF COLORADO THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE OVER ARIZONA MOVES OVER AREA...AND SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER.  MODELS
SIMILAR IN MOVING UPPER TROUGH CLOSER TO COLORADO NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE KEEPING MOISTURE PLUME OVER CWA.  NEXT SHORTWAVE PROGGED OVER
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.  SURFACE FRONT DOESNT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
DURING PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION COULD AID IN MOVING THE FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  MOST OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AGAIN IN SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE VIA SPC THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
FORECAST OF 1500 JOULES.  SHEAR NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THIS EVENING...
BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP.  AMS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY AS 5H
TEMPERATURES COOL IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WILL
INITIATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  THICKNESS VALUES LOWER WITH TIME...
SO TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.

IN LONGER TERM...MRF SHOWS PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OVER CWA
OVER WEEKEND WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA MONDAY.  BASED ON CURRENT
DATA...THIS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR OFF.  UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGGED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS MONDAY.        D-L

.DEN...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
357 PM MDT WED SEP 01 1999

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 01 1999...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0251 PM    2 S MILTON                CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/99   WELD

0321 PM    6 E LA SALLE              CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/99   WELD

0313 PM    5 SE LA SALLE             CO   TORNADO
09/01/99   WELD

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
357 PM MDT WED SEP 01 1999

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 01 1999...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0251 PM    2 S MILTON                CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/99   WELD

0321 PM    6 E LA SALLE              CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/99   WELD

0313 PM    5 SE LA SALLE             CO   TORNADO
09/01/99   WELD

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