Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
311 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 1999

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR PICTURES SHOWING SOME PRETTY HEALTHY DRYING
HEADING THIS WAY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE PUSHING OVER THE AREA.  RADAR IS INDICATING SOME POTENTIALLY
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ZONE 46...AND THEN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER ZONES 40/41.  WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY MOVING
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NO MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
UPSTREAM...WILL GO CLEARS AFTER THIS EVENINGS FESTIVITIES CEASE.

UPPER RIDGE CENTER STAYS SOUTHEAST OF US THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR
PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE
END OF THE LAST PERIOD.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MOISTURE AND
THE THETA-E GRIDS DO KEEP US FAIRLY WET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NOT
SURE I BELIEVE IT WITH WHAT THE SATELLITE PICTURES ARE INDICATING.
THE GRIDS ALSO SHOW AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AROUND...BUT SOME
MID LEVEL WARMING IS INDICATING.  THIS WILL NOT HELP THE CONVECTION
CHANCES HOWEVER THE LAPSE RATES ARE STILL NOT THAT BAD.  WILL KEEP
SOME POPS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.  THE TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS
GRIDS SHOW A TAD WARMER ON MONDAY...THEN SAME FOR TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MRF SHOWING UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO
PRETTY LARGE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR.  ITS ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE CONTINUING.  A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE CONSIDERING CURRENT
WATER VAPOR PICTURES...BUT WELL SEE.  WILL KEEP CHANCE GOING NONE
THE LESS.                    RJK

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030-032>050-300600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
515 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 1999

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING OVER ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 512 PM MDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ELBERT
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  RADAR HAS DETECTED VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

RADAR HAS ALSO INDICATED WEAK CIRCULATIONS INSIDE SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SMALL FUNNELS AND TORNADOES.

THE CITIES OF AGATE..CEDAR POINT...DEER TRAIL...AND INTERSTATE 70
ACROSS EASTERN ARAPAHOE AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTIES ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE WATCH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUCH AS LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

BAKER

COZ030-032>050-300600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
515 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 1999

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING OVER ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 512 PM MDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ELBERT
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  RADAR HAS DETECTED VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

RADAR HAS ALSO INDICATED WEAK CIRCULATIONS INSIDE SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SMALL FUNNELS AND TORNADOES.

THE CITIES OF AGATE..CEDAR POINT...DEER TRAIL...AND INTERSTATE 70
ACROSS EASTERN ARAPAHOE AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTIES ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE WATCH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUCH AS LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

BAKER