Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT THU JUL 22 1999

SFC LOW IN CNTRL SD WI TROUGH EXTENDING TO JMS AND GFK. THIS FEATURE
AND EWD IS MAIN FOCUS OF SVR TSTM THREAT. FEEL BIS AREA CLOSE ENOUGH
TO LOW WI DWPT IN LOW 70S AND LIS LESS THAN -9 THIS AFTN TO WARRANT
CHC TSMS. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE DIK/MOT AREA ALSO. VORT MAX IN SRN CAN
WI VORT TAIL MOVING ACROSS NRN ND TON. WL KEEP CHC TSTMS TON NORTH.
FRI LOOKS MS AND HOT...BUT ALL THREE MODELS HAVE VORT MOVING IN LATE
FRI AFTN/FRI NT. HOT AGAIN SAT. H7 CAP SETS UP AND AVN CARRIES IT
THROUGH ENOUGH TO KEEP STRONG VORT FROM PRODUCING TSTMS IN ND. WL
PUT CHC SAT NT IN THE NORTH WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST.

CAP BREAKS DOWN FOR SUN AND MON WI SFC LOW AND H5 ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE STA. NOTHING SIG FOR TUE.

.BIS...NONE.
VINING

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-222200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  BISMARCK ND
1150 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF A DICKINSON/WILLISTON LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...

FORECAST...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A NEW ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ABOVE THAT.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REINITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IN CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. LISTEN FOR LATER
FORECAST AND UPDATES.

RSL