Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT MON JUL 19 1999

BUSY OVERNIGHT AS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON
LINGERING FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH MID
MORNING AND EXITING SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING FORECAST AREA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER EXTENDING WESTWARD TO A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  850 MB JET LOCATED
OVER EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS WEAKENING AND SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEPARTING...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA IN A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER DEPICTED WELL BY LATEST MSAS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
CHART. HAD EARLIER BELIEVED THAT END OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE
TIED TO EXIT OF 850 MB JET...BUT SURFACE WAVE APPEARS STRONGER THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IOWA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COMES
TO AN END ACROSS THE NORTH.  WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
BUT MITCHELL...HOWARD...FLOYD...CHICKASAW...WINNESHIEK AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA...WHERE THE WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL
900 AM THIS MORNING.

MID-LEVEL DRYING IN VICINITY OF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF DAY FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED MUGGY AND
WARM CONDITIONS.  ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN IS PROGGED FOR
EARLY TUESDAY AND CURRENT FORECASTS COVER THIS WELL WITH 40 POPS.
HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL ABOUND IF THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS EVEN HALF THE QPF
OF THE PRESENT ONE.

.LSE...FLASH FLOOD NORTHEAST IOWA...IAZ008>010-018-019-029 UNTIL 900 AM
           CDT.

DEVOIR

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-192200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
520 AM CDT MON JUL 19 1999

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON...EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. UNTIL
THEN...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SERVED AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE STORMS WILL ALSO START TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING
THE AREA SOME DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOODING...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA. SATURATED GROUNDS RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WATER WILL
RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVER BASINS AND COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING BY TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. RIVER LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

RIECK