Tornado Warning 4, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NW THIRD OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ITS LOCATED FROM NEAR GUY TO AMA TO JUST NORTH
OF TCC IN NM. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE HAS SET
UP TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND IS SLOWING MOVING EAST.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. A LINE OF CUMULUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE ONLY NEG MIGHT BE SOME SUPPRESSION
WITH TROUGH TO THE NORTH...BUT COORDINATING WITH SPC DONT FEEL THIS
WILL BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CWA. BY
MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DECREASING AS THEY MOVE EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES ALONG WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. FRIDAY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS A BIT... BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE A THREAT AGAIN AS WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
EAST BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SATURDAY THE SOUTHWEST LOW GET
MORE ESTABLISHED KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSTABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN OVER THE
SW THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KICK OUT OCCASIONALLY
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS FA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLES. THEN
WARMING TEMPS RETURNING FOR TUESDAY.

PRELIM CCF:

DHT 55/77 53/88 52 433
AMA 56/78 55/89 53 533

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

N. DIPASQUALE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-210500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO SOUTH
OF DALHART TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING. THE DRYLINE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADEQUATE MOISTURE PRESENT WILL RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...A MINOR UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.

ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE PARAMETERS
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-210500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU MAY 20 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO SOUTH
OF DALHART TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING. THE DRYLINE WAS ALSO LOCATED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADEQUATE MOISTURE PRESENT WILL RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...A MINOR UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.

ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE PARAMETERS
MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ANDRADE