Tornado Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 1999

ISOLD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALREADY THIS AFTN ALONG FNTL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN TX PNHDL. 18Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATED CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
WITH LAPSE RATES 6.5C. LARGE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER REMAINDER OF
TX PNHDL WITH WEAK W/NWRLY SFC FLOW S OF FNT. LATEST LAPS DATA
SUGGEST BEST CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED FM NE TX PNHDL BACK INTO ERN NM
AS FLOW BACKED AT TCC. 12Z MODELS INDICATED NOSE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ADVECTING N ACRS HOBBS TO CVS. THIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E THIS
EVE. UPPER JET STREAK ALSO MOVING ACRS PNHDLS THIS EVE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT...ESP NRN ZNS. EXPECT LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX PNHDL THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SE ALONG
MOIST AXIS AND AHEAD OF INCREASING H8 FLOW INTO SE TX PNHDL. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH EXPECTED SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED FFA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ZNS
WHICH HAVE RECIEVED MOST RAINFALL LAST FEW DAYS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS FFG VALUES STILL RUNNING NR 2 INCHES.

CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO MV S OVERNIGHT WITH DEEPER UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO NRN ZNS. GRANADA PROFILER ALREADY SHOWING ERLY FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY UP TO H7 SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
STIFF PUSH S. THIS SHOULD BE ENUF TO SHUT OFF PRECIP ACROSS AT
LEAST NRN ZNS WED PROVIDING COOL AND CLOUDY DAY MOST AREAS. UPPER
LOW FCST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE E THROUGH THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS
THROUGH THEN AS COLD POOL MOVES OVHD AND LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO REINFORCE INSTABILITY.

IN EXTENDED...REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY ROTATE NE WITH TIME AS
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FCST TO DIG INTO SW U.S. EXPECT RELATIVE BREAK IN
PRECIP SAT BEFORE MORE ENERGY IN SW FLOW APPROACHES LATE SUN.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COBB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-252300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 1999

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  COOL AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.  THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES
STRONG INSTABILITY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA
WILL SEND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS THE WIND ALOFT. THE WIND ALOFT
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE DIVERGENT WITH TIME TONIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AS THE WIND ALOFT INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE OVER THE
COLD FRONT AND OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM RECENT
THUNDERSTORMS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY REQUIRE
ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

GOEHRING