Tornado Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 PM CST FRI APR 02 1999

LATEST HAND ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC COLD FRONT JUST SE OF A MHK-CSM-
TCC LINE AND WAS SLOWING DOWN AND BECOMING QSTNRY IN THIS GENERAL
AREA. THIS IS DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES TO THE W AND NW AHEAD
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING NNEWD THRU 4 CORNERS REGION.
DRYLINE WAS SITUATED ALONG A CSM TO CDS TO E OF MAF LINE.
FINALLY...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS ALIGNED E OF A ALS TO SAF TO
ELP LINE. EXPECT FIRST COLD FRONT TO MOVE BACK/REDEVELOP NWD TNGT AS
UPPER LOW MAINTAINS A NNEWD TRACK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE PRESSING EWD TNGT.
AS FOR THE DRYLINE...IT TOO SHOULD ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD. WHAT MIGHT
END UP OCCURRING IS THAT THE DRYLINE MAY RETREAT WWD A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CATCHES UP/OVERTAKES IT...THEN
SURGES EWD. TSTMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED IN
OK AND JUST S OF FCST AREA. WILL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE BEFORE
CONSIDERING POPS SERN TX PNHDL. PRELIM THOUGHTS ARE TO KEEP MOST
PLACES DRY TNGT EXCEPT PSBLY SERN ZONES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE DISTRICT THIS
EVENING/TNGT.

AND THE PARADE OF CLOSED LOWS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BASED ON LATEST MODELS. PREFER AVN/NGM STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF
LOWS NEXT 48 HRS AS ETA HAS PERFORMED MISERABLY WITH CLOSED LOWS
SINCE THIS WHOLE EPISODE BEGAN IN EARLY MARCH. THE NEXT IN THE
NEVERENDING SERIES IS EXPECTED TO DIG STRONGLY SSEWD TO EXTRM SRN NV
BY SUN MORNING. WILL RETAIN DRY WX FOR SAT AND SUN AS PNHDLS WILL BE
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BASED ON LATEST 72 HR AVN...WILL MORE THAN LIKELY
HOLD ON TO A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MON AS THIS NEXT UPPER LOW HEADS
EWD INTO FCST AREA.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FINDS A HAPPY HOME OVER THE
SWRN US BY WED...AND MAY MENTION A THREAT FOR PRECIP THEN AS WELL.
TUES THE PNHDLS SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AGAIN...IF TIMING BY LONG
RANGE MODELS IS ANYWHERE NEAR PLAUSIBLE. REFER TO PMDEPD FOR
PERTINENT DETAILS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW.

DHT 35/63/33/67  -000
GUY 36/62/34/66  1000
AMA 38/64/35/69  -000

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-030300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. EARLY THIS EVENING...A DRYLINE...WHICH
IS A BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AND STABLE AIR THE WEST AND VERY MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST...WAS RETREATING WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING STORM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AS
THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. IF THE DRYLINE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE ABLE TO
RETREAT FAR ENOUGH WEST...SUFFICIENT TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY
ALSO RESULT IN SOME SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY
ACROSS COLLINGSWORTH AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

COBB