Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999

TWO AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIP TO DEAL WITH FIRST PERIOD BEFORE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD MOVES IN THIS EVENING. FIRST IS LARGE AREA
MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NE CORNER FA ASSCD WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS AREA HAS SLOWED PROGRESS AS IT GETS INTO LESS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FURTHER AWAY FROM UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN NM.
SECOND AREA IS MORE LINEAR AND EXTENDS ACROSS WRN ZNS WHICH SHOWS
SIGNS OF FASTER EWRD MOVEMENT. ONCE THIS SECOND BATCH CLEARS WRN
ZNS THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP BEFORE MORE DYNAMICS PUSH E
INTO ERN NM THIS EVE. JET STREAK SHOWN ON SATL ACRS ERN NM HELPING
GENERATE MORE CONVECTION ALONG AND W OF SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS
FM KCQC-E ROW-KINK. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY WILL MIX A BIT FURTHER E THIS
EVE AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME BRIEF CLEARING TO WRN ZNS EXPECT SE
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN NR SUNSET AND PUSH MOISTURE BACK TO MTNS...
AT LEAST UNTIL UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NE AS FCST. THIS ALL
MAKES FOR TRICKY FIRST PERIOD FCST...ESP WITH FLASH FLOOD THREAT
STILL HIGH. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZNS WHERE FFG BELO 1 INCH. ERN ZNS HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED AS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO WILL NOT REISSUE THERE YET.

EXPECT SFC BOUNDARY TO BE ALONG NM BORDER SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE SUN
THEN STEADILY PROGRESS E DURING THE DAY BEFORE HOLDING UP ACRS ERN
ZNS IN THE AFTN. THINK ANY SUNSHINE WILL GO INTO EVAPORATION THUS
KEEPING TEMPS FROM SOARING TOO MUCH. PLENTIFUL LLVL MOISTURE AND
REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS WOULD MEAN LARGE CU FIELD. WILL LEAVE SUN
NIGHT DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SHRTWV.

SW FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY DEVELOPS MON AS NEXT SHRTWV DIGS INTO WRN U.S.
WILL PLACE SOME POPS MON AFTN IN E WHERE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED AND
EXPAND TO ALL AREAS MON NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.

IN EXTENDED...PAC CDFNT FCST TO PASS THROUGH AREA WED SO WILL TAKE
TEMPS BACK2 INTO 70S. NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF WED WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT W.

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT FOR ZONES 1>3-6>8-11>13-16>18.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT FOR ZONES 1-2.

COBB

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